Skip to content
News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
More View more
Euro Technical Outlook: EUR/USD Bounce Brings Fade Potential

Euro Technical Outlook: EUR/USD Bounce Brings Fade Potential

Michael Boutros, Strategist

Euro Technical Price Outlook: EUR/USD Weekly Trade Levels

  • Euro updated technical trade levels & sentiment – Weekly Chart
  • EUR/USD recovery approaches first major test of resistance
  • Key support at 1.1616 – Critical resistance at 1.1823/35

Euro is attempting a second weekly advance against the US Dollar after rebounding off confluence support into the close of September. The rally is vulnerable however as EUR/USD approaches the first test of resistance and we’re on the lookout for possible exhaustion on a stretch higher. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the EUR/USD weekly price chart. Review my latest Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Loonie technical setup and more.

Starts in:
Live now:
Oct 03
( 12:10 GMT )
Live Weekly Strategy Webinars on Mondays at 12:30GMT
Weekly Scalping Webinar
Register for webinar
Join now
Webinar has ended

Euro Price Chart – EUR/USD Weekly

Euro Price Chart - EUR/USD Weekly - Euro vs US Dollar Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast 10-7-2020

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; EUR/USD on Tradingview

Notes: In last month’s Euro Weekly Price Outlook we noted that the EUR/USD rally was vulnerable as the, “weekly momentum profile highlights the risk for topside exhaustion here while below 1.2005 with a pending RSI support trigger in view.” That high held with a break of the September opening-range lows fueling a decline of more than 3.3% before rebounding off confluence support at the 2016 swing high at 1.1616.

A recovery of more than 1.5% off the lows is now eyeing key resistance at 1.1823/35- a region defined by the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 2018 decline and the yearly high-week reversal close. The recovery may be vulnerable while below this threshold. A break / close below 1.1616 would expose more significant support at the 2019 open / 38.2% retracement at 1.1445/86-an area of interest for possible downside exhaustion IF reached. A topside breach / close above the 1.1835 level is needed to mark resumption towards 1.2005 again.

EUR Forecast
EUR Forecast
Recommended by Michael Boutros
Download Our Latest Quarterly Euro Price Forecasts!
Get My Guide

Bottom line: The recent Euro recovery is approaching the first major resistance zone and leaves the rally vulnerable here. From at trading standpoint, be on the lookout for topside exhaustion / swing high ahead of 1.1823/35 with a close lower needed to suggest a larger correction is underway. Ultimately, a larger correction may offer more favorable entries closer to uptrend support. Review my latest Euro Price Outlook for a closer look at the near-term EUR/USD technical trade levels.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Euro Trader Sentiment – EUR/USD Price Chart

Euro Trader Sentiment - EUR/USD Price Chart - Euro Technical Outlook - Weekly Forecast 10-7-2020
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-short EUR/USD - the ratio stands at -1.66 (37.60% of traders are long) – bullish reading
  • Long positions are3.19% higher than yesterday and 0.63% higher from last week
  • Short positions are11.60% lower than yesterday and 0.04% lower from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EUR/USD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current EUR/USD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.
EUR/USD Bullish
Data provided by
of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily -11% 15% -4%
Weekly -21% 17% -11%
Learn how shifts in Euro retail positioning impact trend
Get My Guide


Key Euro / US Data Releases

Key Euro / US Data Releases - EUR/USD Economic Calendar - Euro Event Risk

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

Previous Weekly Technical Charts

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.