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Euro Technical Outlook: EUR/USD Vulnerable at Yearly Trend Resistance

Euro Technical Outlook: EUR/USD Vulnerable at Yearly Trend Resistance

Michael Boutros, Strategist

Euro Technical Price Outlook: EUR/USD Weekly Trade Levels

  • Euro updated technical trade levels & sentiment – Weekly Chart
  • EUR/USD falters at confluence resistance – risk for correction while below 1.2005
  • Critical support at 1.1445 – Topside breach exposes 1.2145

Euro has slipped more than 0.35% against the US Dollar this week with EUR/USD trading just below uptrend resistance at multi-year highs. While the broader focus is weighted to the long-side, the immediate advance remains vulnerable here and a larger correction may offer more favorable opportunities in the weeks ahead. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the EUR/USD weekly price chart. Review my latest Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Loonie technical setup and more.

Euro Price Chart – EUR/USD Weekly

Euro Price Chart - EUR/USD Weekly - Euro vs US Dollar Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; EUR/USD on Tradingview

Notes: In my last Euro Weekly Price Outlook we highlighted that the rally was testing confluence resistance1.1815/23 while noting that, “a close above this key confluence zone would keep the focus on subsequent topside resistance objectives at the 2018 yearly open at 1.2005 and the 78.6% retracement at 1.2145.” Euro has continued to straddle the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 2018 decline with price registering a high at 1.2011 into the September open.

The rally takes Euro above multi-year trendline resistance extending off the 2008 highs but keeps price within the confines of an ascending channel formation off the yearly lows. The weekly momentum profile highlights the risk for topside exhaustion here while below 1.2005 with a pending RSI support trigger in view.

Initial weekly support now rests at the highlighted confluence region around the 2016 high at 1.1616 with broader bullish invalidation set to the 38.2% retracement / 2019 yearly open at 1.1445/86- an area of interest for possible downside exhaustion IF reached. A topside breach above the 1.20-handle still has to contend with the 78.6% retracement at 1.2145- need a breach / close above to fuel the next leg higher in price.

Bottom line: The broader Euro rally remains vulnerable near-term while below 1.2005. From a trading standpoint, a good zone to reduce long exposure – look for an exhaustion low ahead of 1.1445 on a pullback with a breach above 1.2145 needed to mark resumption of the broader up-trend. I’ll publish an updated Euro Price Outlook once we get further clarity on the near-term EUR/USD technical trade levels.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Euro Trader Sentiment – EUR/USD Price Chart

Euro Trader Sentiment - EUR/USD Price Chart - Euro vs Dollar Trader Positioning- Technical Forecast
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-short EUR/USD - the ratio stands at -1.44 (40.94% of traders are long) – weak bullish reading
  • Long positions are3.94% lower than yesterday and 14.81% lower from last week
  • Short positions are4.58% lower than yesterday and 1.69% lower from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EUR/USD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday but more net-short from last week. The combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a further mixed EUR/USD trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.


Key Euro / US Data Releases

Key Euro / US Data Releases - EUR/USD Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

Previous Weekly Technical Charts

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.