Skip to Content
News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
More View More
Euro Dollar Outlook: EUR/USD Rips to Fresh 2020 High- Breakout Levels

Euro Dollar Outlook: EUR/USD Rips to Fresh 2020 High- Breakout Levels

Michael Boutros,
What's on this page

Euro Technical Price Outlook: EUR/USD Near-term Trade Levels

  • Euro updated technical trade levels – Daily & Intraday Charts
  • EUR/USD testing multi-year Fibonacci resistance- bulls at risk into 1.1600/21
  • Trade remains constructive while above 1.1437- topside breach exposes 1.1712

Euro is poised to mark a fifth consecutive weekly advance with EUR/USD up more than 1.4% since the Sunday open. The rally takes price into a multi-year Fibonacci resistance and while the broader outlook remains constructive, the immediate advance may be vulnerable near-term. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the EUR/USD price charts heading into the close of the week. Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Euro trade setup and more.

Euro Price Chart – EUR/USD Daily

Euro Price Chart - EUR/USD Daily - Euro vs US Dollar Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; EUR/USD on Tradingview

Technical Outlook: In our last Euro Technical Price Outlook we noted that EUR/USD was trading, “just above a key support pivot we’ve been tracking and the focus is on a reaction off this threshold.” The region was defined by the Fibonacci support confluence at 1.1167/87- price registered a low at 1.1185 into the start of July before ripping higher with the advance now testing subsequent resistance at the 50% retracement of the 2018 decline / October 2018 high at 1.1595-1.1621.

A breach / close above this threshold is needed to mark resumption towards subsequent resistance objective at 1.1712 and 1.1815/22. Initial daily support now 1.15 with bullish invalidation now raised to the March high-day close / 2019 open at 1.1437/45. A close below this threshold would be needed to suggest a larger reversal is underway.

Euro Price Chart – EUR/USD 120min

Euro Price Chart - EUR/USD 120min - Euro vs US Dollar Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast

Notes: A closer look at Euro price action sees EUR/USD trading within an ascending pitchfork formation with the recent rally stalling here at the 75% parallel / key resistance. Initial support along the median-line backed by 1.15 and 1.1437/45 – both levels of interest for possible downside exhaustion IF reached.

EUR Forecast
EUR Forecast
Recommended by Michael Boutros
Download Our Latest Quarterly Euro Price Forecasts!
Get My Guide

Bottom line: Euro is testing multi-year Fibonacci resistance here at the 1.16-handle and the immediate advance may be vulnerable while below this threshold- watch the close. From a trading standpoint, a good zone to reduce long-exposure / raise protective stops – be on the lookout for an exhaustion low while within this formation with a close above 1.1621 needed to mark resumption of the broader uptrend. Review my latest Euro Weekly Price Outlook for an in-depth look at the longer-term EUR/USD technical trade levels.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Euro Trader Sentiment – EUR/USD Price Chart

Euro Trader Sentiment - EUR/USD Price Chart - Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-short EUR/USD - the ratio stands at -2.11 (32.11% of traders are long) – bullish reading
  • Long positions are 12.80% higher than yesterday and 22.37% higher from last week
  • Short positions are1.21% lower than yesterday and 3.52% lower from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EUR/USD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. From a sentiment standpoint, the recent changes in positioning warn that the current EUR/USD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.
EUR/USD Bearish
Data provided by
of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily 14% 3% 10%
Weekly 14% -17% 0%
Learn how shifts in Euro retail positioning impact trend
Get My Guide


Key Euro / US Data Releases

Key Euro / US Data Releases - EUR/USD Economic Calendar - Euro Event Risk

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

Active Trade Setups

- Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.