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Euro Price Outlook: EUR/USD at Technical Support Pivot into July Open

Euro Price Outlook: EUR/USD at Technical Support Pivot into July Open

Michael Boutros, Strategist

Euro Technical Price Outlook: EUR/USD Near-term Trade Levels

  • Euro updated technical trade levels – Daily & Intraday Charts
  • EUR/USD testing key support pivot- bears at risk into 1.1167
  • Focus is on break of weekly opening-range- close above 1.1325 needed to mark reversal

Euro marked a range of nearly 3% against the US Dollar this month and despite the volatility, EUR/USD is poised to close June up just 1.2%. The move includes the defense of a key near-term pivot zone in price and the focus is on the break of the weekly opening-range as we head into the July open. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the EUR/USD price charts heading into the close of the week. Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Euro trade setup and more.

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Euro Price Chart – EUR/USD Daily

Euro Price Chart - EUR/USD Daily - Euro vs Dollar Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; EUR/USD on Tradingview

Technical Outlook: In our last Euro Weekly Technical Outlook we noted that the broader focus, “is on a break of the 1.1167-1.1370 range for guidance,” as price continues to contact just above a key pivot zone we’ve been tracking for months now. Euro is attempting a break of channel support here today but the impetus remains on a close below 1.1167/87 to suggest a larger correction is underway. Daily resistance stands with the monthly trendline (currently ~1.1307) backed by the 61.8% retracement of the June decline at 1.1325- a breach / close above this threshold is needed to mark resumption with such a scenario exposing the broader 38.2% retracement at 1.1369.

Euro Price Chart – EUR/USD 120min

Euro Price Chart - EUR/USD 120min - Euro vs Dollar Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast

Notes: A closer look at Euro price action sees EUR/USD trading within a near-term descending pitchfork formation with the recent sell-off rebounding today off near-term confluence Fibonacci support at 1.1187/91- looking for a larger reaction off this threshold. A close below 1.1167 is needed to keep the short-bias viable with subsequent support objectives eyed at the monthly open at 1.1115 and the 100% extension at 1.1094. Look for soft resistance near the December highs at 1.1239 with a breach above trendline resistance / the weekly opening-range highs at 1.1288 needed to shift the focus higher.

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Bottom line: Euro has set the weekly opening-range just above a key support pivot we’ve been tracking and the focus is on a reaction off this threshold. From a trading standpoint, a good region to reduce short-exposure / lower protective stops – rallies should be capped by 1.1288 IF price is indeed heading lower. Ultimately a larger correction may offer more favorable entries with a breach above 1.1325 ultimately needed to mark resumption of the broader up trend. Review my latest Euro Weekly Price Outlook for an in-depth look at the longer-term EUR/USD technical trade levels.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Euro Trader Sentiment – EUR/USD Price Chart

Euro Trader Sentiment - EUR/USD Price Chart - Euro vs Dollar Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-short EUR/USD - the ratio stands at -1.49 (40.18% of traders are long) – weak bullish reading
  • Long positions are 10.70% lower than yesterday and 3.35% lower from last week
  • Short positions are9.16% higher than yesterday and 2.19% lower from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EUR/USD prices may continue to rise. Traders are further net-short than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a stronger EUR/USD-bullish contrarian trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.
EUR/USD BEARISH
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of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily 8% -10% -1%
Weekly 26% -10% 6%
Learn how shifts in Euro retail positioning impact trend
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Key Euro / US Data Releases

Key Euro / US Data Releases - EUR/USD Economic Calendar - Euro / Dollar Event Risk

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

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- Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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