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EUR/USD Faces a Crucial Resistance Level - EUR vs USD Price Forecast

EUR/USD Faces a Crucial Resistance Level - EUR vs USD Price Forecast

2020-05-01 09:30:00
Mahmoud Alkudsi, Analyst

Euro vs US Dollar Technical Outlook

  • EUR/USD re-coups previous week’s losses, what’s next?
  • Will bulls keep controlling the price action?

Bullish Recovery

On Friday, EUR/USD fell to a near five weeks low at 1.0727 then rallied after, as some bears seemed to cover. Yet, the price closed the weekly candlestick with a 0.4% loss. This week, the price rallied further and recovered all the previous week’s losses.

Alongside that, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) rose from 44 to 56 highlighting the start of a bullish momentum.

EUR/USD DAILY PRICE CHART (SEP 1, 2018 – May 1, 2020) Zoomed Out

EURUSD Daily price chart 01-05-20 zoomed out
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EUR/USD DAILY PRICE CHART ( FEB 11 – May 1, 2020) Zoomed IN

EURUSD Daily price chart 01-05-20 zoomed in

Looking at the daily chart, I notice that on Monday EUR/USD climbed to the current trading zone 1.0822 – 1.0992 afterward, the price failed twice to retreat to the lower zone, and this caused the market to push higher. A bullish signal would be generated today if the pair closes above the 50-day moving average.

A close above the high end of the aforementioned zone reflects a stronger bullish sentiment, and this may cause a rally towards 1.1240. A further close above that level could extend this rally towards 1.1300. Nevertheless, the weekly resistance levels underlined on the chart (zoomed in) should be considered.

On the other hand, any failure in closing above the high end of the zone signals bull’s reluctance. That said, it would require more than one failure to conclude a weakening bullish momentum. In that scenario, EURUSD may fall towards the low end of the zone. A further close below that level could send the price even lower towards 1.0719. Although, the weekly support level printed on the chart should be watched closely.

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EUR/USD Four-Hour PRICE CHART (March 14 – May 1, 2020)

EURUSD Four Hour price chart 01-05-20

From the four- hour chart, I noticed that at the start of this week EUR/USD broke above the downtrend line originated from the April 14 high at 1.0991, then started a bullish move creating higher highs with higher lows.

Thus, a break above 1.1052 may lead EURUSD to climb towards 1.1116. Yet, the weekly resistance level underscored on the chart should be kept in focus. In turn, any break in the other direction could correct the price lower towards 1.0833. Although, the daily support level marked on the chart should be monitored closely.

See the chart to find out more about the key levels EUR/USD would encounter in a further bearish /bullish scenario.

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Written By: Mahmoud Alkudsi, Market Analyst

Please feel free to contact me on Twitter: @Malkudsi

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.