Skip to content
News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Euro May Bounce From 3-Year Low

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Euro May Bounce From 3-Year Low

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC


  • Euro slide continues, EUR/USD probing support below 1.08 figure
  • Near-term chart positioning suggests selling pressure may be ebbing
  • Retail trader sentiment studies warn that Euro upturn may brewing

The Euro continues to sink against the US Dollar as expected, sliding to the lowest level in close to 3 years to probe below the 1.08 figure. The outer layer of immediate support is at 1.0783, with a daily close below that seemingly opening the door for a test of the December 2016 – April 2017 pivot level.

Euro vs US Dollar price chart - daily

EUR/USD daily chart created with TradingView

Zooming into the four-hour chart for a look at near-term positioning warns against over-extrapolating scope for immediate bearish follow-through however. Positive RSI divergence warns that downside momentum may be ebbing, which might precede a rebound.

Confirmation on a break above 1.0826 would suggest that immediate selling pressure has been neutralized, setting the stage for a larger upswing. Looking through minor levels, the first major barrier lining up to cap gains thereafter is marked by the September – October 2019 bottom in the 1.0878-84 zone.

Euro vs US Dollar price chart - 4 hour

EUR/USD 4-hour chart created with TradingView


Chart of Euro vs US Dollar exchange rate, retail trader sentiment

Retail trader data shows 75.21% of traders are net-long, with the ratio of longs to shorts at 3.03 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 1.83% lower than yesterday and 2.65% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 5.02% higher than yesterday and 11.51% higher from last week.

IG Client Sentiment (IGCS) is typically used as a contrarian indicator, and traders being net-long suggests EUR/USD may continue to fall.Yet positioning is less net-long than yesterday and compared with last week, which warns that EUR/USD may soon reverse higher.

See the full IGCS sentiment report here.


--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for

To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.