News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
More View more
Real Time News
  • The US 10-year Treasury yield is sharply lower on the day, trading right through 1.60% $ZN_F $ZB_F https://t.co/HYkhqJUpIJ
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 90.08%, while traders in AUD/JPY are at opposite extremes with 75.09%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/UFyj4X2p8Q
  • RT @kaylatausche: NEWS, as just reported on @CNBC: Bank reporting proposal officially nixed from the $1.5T spending package after oppositio…
  • The Japanese Yen may yet stage a counter-offensive with the broader USD/JPY rally vulnerable while below 115 near-term. Get your $USDJPY market update from @MBForex here:https://t.co/3QCZCWFGob https://t.co/9UoT32PkpC
  • Commodities Update: As of 16:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Gold: 0.16% Silver: -0.15% Oil - US Crude: -2.22% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/r6Zb6hjCT0
  • Forex Update: As of 16:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇨🇦CAD: 0.43% 🇯🇵JPY: 0.40% 🇦🇺AUD: 0.26% 🇨🇭CHF: 0.20% 🇪🇺EUR: 0.04% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.15% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/n3FcbuVcA2
  • USD/JPY gives back the advance from the start of the week amid the recent weakness in longer-dated US Treasury yields. Get your $USDJPY market update from @DavidJSong here:https://t.co/MATXnuFhaS https://t.co/GEZXU08vy3
  • Indices Update: As of 16:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: FTSE 100: 0.16% France 40: 0.05% Germany 30: 0.03% US 500: 0.00% Wall Street: -0.34% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/hFqNoqtboO
  • it never ends :s https://t.co/kHS7Smk398
  • RT @JakeSherman: 🚨🚨 Manchin a no on billionaire tax! After Sinema was a no on raising marginal and corporate rates.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Euro May Bounce Before Deeper Drop

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Euro May Bounce Before Deeper Drop

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

EUR/USD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: BEARISH

  • Euro breaks October 2019 range floor, sinks to near-3 year low
  • Long-term chart positioning hints at scope for fall toward 1.07
  • Bounce may precede deeper drop as near-term momentum ebbs

The Euro has continued to push lower against the US Dollar as expected, taking out support marked by the October 1 low at 1.0879. That puts the single currency at its lowest level since May 2017. The next layer of near-term support is clustered near the 1.08 figure.

Euro vs US Dollar price chart - daily

EUR/USD daily chart created with TradingView

Longer-term positioning suggests there is space for deeper losses beyond that. Averaging the depth of downswings within the well-defined bearish trend guiding EUR/USD since mid-2018 suggests scope for a baseline 4.6 percent decline. That would put the pair just above the 1.07 figure.

Euro vs US Dollar price chart - weekly

EUR/USD weekly chart created with TradingView

Nevertheless, near-term positioning warns against over-extrapolating sellers’ capacity for immediate follow-through. The four-hour chart reveals positive RSI divergence, suggesting that downward momentum is ebbing. That may set the stage for a digestive pause or even an outright rebound.

A break of the 1.09 figure has scope to neutralize short-term selling pressure. Securing a further foothold above 1.0939 may set the stage for a larger recovery to challenge the underside of support-turned-resistance near the 1.10 mark.

Euro vs US Dollar price chart - 4 hour

EUR/USD 4-hour chart created with TradingView

EUR/USD TRADER SENTIMENT

Chart of Euro vs US Dollar exchange rate, retail trader sentiment

Retail trader data shows 76.04% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 3.17 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 5.80% lower than yesterday and 23.64% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 8.63% higher than yesterday and 23.31% lower from last week.

IG Client Sentiment(IGCS) is typically used as a contrarian indicator, and traders being net-long suggests EUR/USD may continue to fall.Positioning is less net-long than yesterday but more so compared to last week. On balance, that makes for a mixed sentiment-based trading bias.

See the full IGCS sentiment report here.

EUR/USD TRADING RESOURCES

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES