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EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Euro Ready to Reverse Uptrend?

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Euro Ready to Reverse Uptrend?

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC


  • Euro breaks December support, threatening bounds of 3-month recovery
  • Confirmation of bearish resumption eyes initial support just under 1.09
  • Long-term trend dynamics hint extension toward 1.07 might be in scope
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The Euro extended lower after a false breakout past the 1.12 figure, as expected. The currency has now broken upward-sloping support guiding gains against the US Dollar through December, hinting near-term pressure higher has been neutralized.

Making the case for broader bearish trend resumption probably requires further confirmation however. A daily close below the 1.1069-1.1104 congestion zone and a rising trend line connecting major swing lows since October – now at 1.1051 – seem like prerequisites on that score.

Euro vs US Dollar price chart - daily

Daily EUR/USD chart created with TradingView

If this materializes, a move through the 1.0968-90 congestion area to challenge the swing low at 1.0879 may follow. A deeper selloff could be in the cards if long-term trend dynamics hold up however. The pace of the down move now in play implies an average drop of 4.6 percent, putting price just above 1.07.

Euro vs US Dollar price chart - weekly

Weekly EUR/USD chart created with TradingView


Data provided by
of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily -12% 7% -8%
Weekly 5% -43% -13%
What does it mean for price action?
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--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for

To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.