Skip to Content
News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
More View More
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Setting the Stage for a Drop to 1.05?

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Setting the Stage for a Drop to 1.05?

Ilya Spivak,
What's on this page


  • Euro recoils from 3-month trend resistance, eyeing September low
  • Monthly close below 1.0980 may mean a drop to 1.05 may is next
  • Invalidating near-term bearish bias needs a close above 1.1116

Get help building confidence in your EUR/USD strategy with our free trading guide!

The Euro recoiled from resistance guiding losses against the US Dollar since late June, slipping past the lower bound of a choppy congestion range. Sellers now aim to challenge the .0924-26 area,marked by September’s monthly low and the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion.

A daily close below this barrier targets the 61.8% level at 1.0809 next. Invalidating the near-term bearish bias is a tall order. Would-be buyers face back-to-back resistance levels running up from the 23.6% Fib at 1.0995 and through 1.1116, the outer layer of an infection zone in play since late April.

Euro vs US Dollar price chart - daily

Daily EURUSD chart created in TradingView

The monthly chart underscores the Euro’s precarious position. With a mere three days of trade left in September, prices are dangerously close to securing a close below the four-year inflection point at 1.0980. That may well set the stage for a subsequent decline to test support clustered around the 1.05 figure.

Euro vs US Dollar price chart - monthly

Monthly EURUSD chart created in TradingView

Having said that, sellers are probably mindful of the adverse risk/reward implications of piling into shorts at a time when the currency pair sits within a hair of immediate support. Securing a daily close below 1.0924 is probably a prerequisite for lasting follow-through in the near term.


--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for

To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.