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EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Setting the Stage for a Drop to 1.05?

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Setting the Stage for a Drop to 1.05?

2019-09-26 01:00:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC


  • Euro recoils from 3-month trend resistance, eyeing September low
  • Monthly close below 1.0980 may mean a drop to 1.05 may is next
  • Invalidating near-term bearish bias needs a close above 1.1116

Get help building confidence in your EUR/USD strategy with our free trading guide!

The Euro recoiled from resistance guiding losses against the US Dollar since late June, slipping past the lower bound of a choppy congestion range. Sellers now aim to challenge the .0924-26 area,marked by September’s monthly low and the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion.

A daily close below this barrier targets the 61.8% level at 1.0809 next. Invalidating the near-term bearish bias is a tall order. Would-be buyers face back-to-back resistance levels running up from the 23.6% Fib at 1.0995 and through 1.1116, the outer layer of an infection zone in play since late April.

Euro vs US Dollar price chart - daily

Daily EURUSD chart created in TradingView

The monthly chart underscores the Euro’s precarious position. With a mere three days of trade left in September, prices are dangerously close to securing a close below the four-year inflection point at 1.0980. That may well set the stage for a subsequent decline to test support clustered around the 1.05 figure.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Setting the Stage for a Drop to 1.05?

Monthly EURUSD chart created in TradingView

Having said that, sellers are probably mindful of the adverse risk/reward implications of piling into shorts at a time when the currency pair sits within a hair of immediate support. Securing a daily close below 1.0924 is probably a prerequisite for lasting follow-through in the near term.


--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for

To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.