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EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Euro Sellers Search for Spark

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Euro Sellers Search for Spark

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC


  • Euro struggling to find follow-though after probing below 1.11
  • Conflicted near-term positioning looking for external catalyst
  • Bearish resumption needs August low, former resistance break

Get help building confidence in your EUR/USD strategy with our free trading guide!

The Euro slipped back below the 1.1101-16 price inflection zone, but downside follow-through has struggled to materialize. Indeed, thus far sellers have managed nothing more than to probe July’s closing low of 1.1072. This barrier is reinforced by the 50% Fibonacci expansion at 1.1057.

A daily close below the latter boundary opens the door to challenge the 1.1012-27 area, marked by the August 1 low and the 61.8% level. Overcoming this now seems necessary to make the case for downside follow-through. A turn back above 1.1116 puts the 23.6% Fib at 1.1159 in focus as immediate resistance.

Euro vs US Dollar price chart - daily

Daily EURUSD chart created in TradingView

A look at the four-hour chart might help explain indecision. As noted last week, positioning is sending conflicting cues as the drive past support nevertheless leaves prices atop downward-sloping resistance-turned-support guiding the downswing from late June.

Holding above this barrier keeps alive the possibility that recent weakness marks a correction in a broader rise from August lows rather than the resumption of the long-term downtrend. External impetus seems needed to break the deadlock before true conviction returns. The Fed’s Jackson Hole symposium may be just that.

Euro vs US Dollar price chart - 4 hour

4-hour EURUSD chart created in TradingView


--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for

To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivakon Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.