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EURUSD Price Outlook: Recents Lows Look Vulnerable

EURUSD Price Outlook: Recents Lows Look Vulnerable

Nick Cawley, Strategist

EURUSD Price, Chart and Analysis:

  • EURUSD looks likely to re-test 1.1174 in the short-term.
  • German q/q growth in line with expectations.

Q2 2019 EUR Forecast and USD Top Trading Opportunities

German Q1 2019 growth came in as expected on a q/q basis at 0.4%, the first quarter of growth since Q2 2018, but the nsa figure y/y came in marginally lower than expectations at 0.6% compared to 0.7% expectations and 0.9% prior. While a positive for Germany after two prior quarters of flat economic activity, the future for Europe’s economic engine still looks unclear with international trade disputes weighing on growth expectations.

DailyFX Economic Calendar

EURUSD is now re-testing the 1.1200 handle and is likely to target the May 9 recent low at 1.1174. A break below 1.1192 - the 20-day moving average - will likely accelerate this move. A break and close below 1.1135 opens the April 26 low at 1.1110, a price not seen since May 2017. EURUSD negative sentiment will remain intact while the pair trades under 1.1266.

EURUSD Daily Price Chart (August 2018 – May 15, 2019)

Retail traders are 49.8% net-long EURUSD according to the latest IG Client Sentiment Data, a mildly bullish contrarian indicator. However recent daily and weekly positional changes give us a mixed trading bias.

We run several Trader Sentiment Webinars every week explaining how to use IG client sentiment data and positioning when looking at a trade set-up. Access the DailyFX Webinar Calendar to get all the times and links for a wide range of webinars.

Traders may be interested in two of our trading guides – Traits of Successful Traders and Top Trading Lessons – while technical analysts are likely to be interested in our latest Elliott Wave Guide.

What is your view on EURUSD – bullish or bearish? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author at nicholas.cawley@ig.com or via Twitter @nickcawley1.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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