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EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Euro Down Trend Expected to Resume

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Euro Down Trend Expected to Resume

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

EUR/USD Technical Strategy: BEARISH

  • Euro back at 14-month down trend resistance vs US Dollar
  • Near-term chart positioning hints bearish resumption likely
  • Confirmation of turn on immediate support break pending

Build confidence in your Euro trading strategy with our free guide!

The Euro is back to testing resistance guiding it lower against he US Dollar since January 2018, a barrier reinforced by the top of a choppy channel in play over the past two months. Another rejection might open the door for the next leg in the single currency’s slow downward grind while a break higher has might set the stage for a significant medium-term trend reversal.

Euro vs US Dollar chart - daily

A look at the four-hour chart seems to imply that more immediate positioning favors downside continuation. The appearance of negative RSI divergence on a test of near-term resistance in the 1.1321-31 area speaks to ebbing upside momentum that might precede a reversal. The series of higher highs and lows set from the March 7 low remains intact however, hinting that confirmation is still needed.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Euro Down Trend Expected to Resume

On balance, this seems to argue for a patience. The bearish implications of overall positioning argue against taking up the long side but the absence of an actionable trigger to activate a short trade mean that doing so is probably premature. With that in mind, traders might opt for the sidelines until a more compelling opportunity presents itself. That may come courtesy of a variety of fundamental catalysts on tap ahead.

EUR/USD TRADING RESOURCES

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivakon Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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