Never miss a story from Ilya Spivak

Subscribe to receive daily updates on publications
Please enter valid First Name
Please fill out this field.
Please enter valid Last Name
Please fill out this field.
Please enter valid email
Please fill out this field.
Please select a country

I’d like to receive information from DailyFX and IG about trading opportunities and their products and services via email.

Please fill out this field.

Your Forecast Is Headed to Your Inbox

But don't just read our analysis - put it to the rest. Your forecast comes with a free demo account from our provider, IG, so you can try out trading with zero risk.

Your demo is preloaded with £10,000 virtual funds, which you can use to trade over 10,000 live global markets.

We'll email you login details shortly.

Learn More about Your Demo

You are subscribed to Ilya Spivak

You can manage your subscriptions by following the link in the footer of each email you will receive

An error occurred submitting your form.
Please try again later.

EUR/USD Technical Strategy: BEARISH

  • Euro range break unravels, rally rejected at 12-month resistance line
  • Sellers now targeting key counter-trend support just above 1.13 figure
  • Break lower would point to resumption of the long-term down trend

Build confidence in your Euro trading strategy with our free guide!

The Euro failed to make good on an attempted break higher from a range confining price action against the US Dollar since late October. The pair briefly breached resistance in the 1.1456-81 area but the upswing ran out of steam on a test of trend line resistance set from January 2018. A test of this barrier produced a bearish Evening Star candlestick, which was soon followed by a drop back into familiar territory.

Euro vs US Dollar chart - daily

Sellers are now eyeing counter-trend support guiding the upswing from lows set in mid-November. A daily close below this barrier – now at 1.1328 – would suggest the dominant long-term decline is ready to be reasserted. The first downside hurdle to follow is the November 12 low at 1.1216, followed by a support shelf in the 1.1110-32 zone.

The 1.1456-81 region is back as immediate resistance. Another foray above it would open the door for a test of 1.1554. This appears to be a pivotal spot for bears, marking the intersection of trend line resistance and a chart inflection area in play since November 2017. Establishing a foothold above this would go a long way toward de-fusing immediate selling pressure.


--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for

To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter