Never miss a story from Ilya Spivak

Subscribe to recieve updates on publications
Please enter valid First Name
Please fill out this field.
Please enter valid Last Name
Please fill out this field.
Please enter valid email
Please fill out this field.
Please select a country

I’d like to receive information from Daily FX and IG about trading opportunities and their products and services via email.

Please fill out this field.

Your Forecast Is Headed to Your Inbox

But don't just read our analysis - put it to the rest. Your forecast comes with a free demo account from our provider, IG, so you can try out trading with zero risk.

Your demo is preloaded with £10,000 virtual funds, which you can use to trade over 10,000 live global markets.

We'll email you login details shortly.

Learn More about Your Demo

You are subscribed to Ilya Spivak

You can manage you subscriptions by following the link in the footer of each email you will receive

An error occurred submitting your form.
Please try again later.

EUR/USD Technical Strategy: NET SHORT AT 1.2153

  • Euro locked in familiar congestion area capped near 1.17 figure
  • Dominant trend trajectory continues to favor broadly bearish bias
  • EUR/USD short trade in play, looking for downtrend resumption

See our free guide to get help building confidence in your EUR/USD trading strategy!

The Euro remains locked in a choppy consolidation range after a rebound from support near the 1.13 figure stalled below resistance capping gains since early June. In fact – a brief swoon in mid-August notwithstanding – the pair has barely budged from the same congestion area since late May.

Breaking above the outer layer of that barrier – now at 1.1702 – is needed to neutralize the near-term bearish bias. If that were to happen, the next resistance threshold would emerge in the 1.1840-52 area. Alternatively, a reversal back below support in the 1.1530-54 zone opens the door for descent back toward 1.13.

Euro vs US Dollar chart - daily

Pulling back from near-term price action to size up longer-term positioning on the monthly chart, it seems clear enough that the dominant downtrend stretching back over a decade is intact. Furthermore, the most recent leg of that move – launched in April of this year – shows no apparent signs of having ended.

Euro vs US Dollar chart - monthly

With that in mind, the EUR/USD short position initially triggered at 1.2407 and subsequently scaled up, first near 1.19 and then once again at 1.1660, remains in play. A stop-loss will be activated on a discretionary basis, although a daily close above 1.1702 seems like a compelling reason for an exit.

EUR/USD TRADING RESOURCES

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter