Never miss a story from Ilya Spivak

Subscribe to receive daily updates on publications
Please enter valid First Name
Please fill out this field.
Please enter valid Last Name
Please fill out this field.
Please enter valid email
Please fill out this field.
Please select a country

I’d like to receive information from DailyFX and IG about trading opportunities and their products and services via email.

Please fill out this field.

Your Forecast Is Headed to Your Inbox

But don't just read our analysis - put it to the rest. Your forecast comes with a free demo account from our provider, IG, so you can try out trading with zero risk.

Your demo is preloaded with £10,000 virtual funds, which you can use to trade over 10,000 live global markets.

We'll email you login details shortly.

Learn More about Your Demo

You are subscribed to Ilya Spivak

You can manage your subscriptions by following the link in the footer of each email you will receive

An error occurred submitting your form.
Please try again later.

EUR/USD Technical Strategy: NET SHORT AT 1.2276

  • Euro down trend may be ready to resume after brief upswing
  • Shooting Star candle confirmed with counter-trend line break
  • Adding to prior EUR/USD short, looking for follow-through

See our quarterly Euro trading guide to learn what will drive prices through mid-year!

The Euro may be ready to resume the down move started in mid-April against the US Dollar after brief corrective bounce from support above the 1.18 figure. Renewed selling would mark progress in what looks to be the next leg of the decade-long Euro down trend, a move revived with last month’s close.

The daily chart shows a telltale Shooting Star candlestick on a retest of support-turned-resistance in the 1.1930-56 area. That is indicative of indecision after an upswing and may mark the first sign of topping, although an actionable reversal signal is not immediately implied by this setup alone.

Euro vs US Dollar Daily Price Chart

That comes from the four-hour chart, where the break of counter-trend support line guiding the move higher from the May 9 low appears to suggest bearish resumption is at hand. Immediate resistance is at 1.1996, the latest swing high. The first layer of noteworthy support lines up in the 1.1821-37 region.

Euro vs US Dollar 4-Hour Price Chart

At this point, risk/reward parameters appear acceptable to scale back into the short EUR/USD trade triggered at 1.2407 after partial profit was bookedat the initial objective. The net entry price for overall exposure is now at 1.2276. A stop-loss will be activated on a discretionary basis.


--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for

To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter