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EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Major Topping Pattern in the Works?

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Major Topping Pattern in the Works?

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

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Talking Points:

  • EUR/USD Technical Strategy: Flat
  • Euro may be carving out a large Head and Shoulders topping pattern
  • Confirmation needed before an actionable short trade setup emerges

The Euro may be carving out a large Head and Shoulders topping pattern that, if confirmed my open the door for a drop below 1.14 against the US Dollar. Prices completed smaller H&S top in late September. The larger formation still requires confirmation to become actionable however.

From here, a daily close below the 1.1711-21 area (October 5 close, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, H&S neckline) initially exposes the 50% level at 1.1606. Alternatively, a reversal above the 23.6% Fib expansion at 1.1899 sees the next upside hurdle in the 1.2041-70 zone (38.2% expansion, August 29 high).

Whether the H&S pattern plays out or not, prices are too close to immediate support to justify entering short from a risk/reward perspective. With that in mind, opting to remain on the sidelines and wait for greater clarity seems prudent for the time being.

What do retail traders’ EUR/USD bets hint about on-coming price moves? Find out here!

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Major Topping Pattern in the Works?

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