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EUR/USD Technical Analysis: A Top in Place Below 1.08?

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: A Top in Place Below 1.08?

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

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Talking Points:

  • EUR/USD Technical Strategy: Flat
  • Euro chart positioning hints a turn lower against the US Dollar may be brewing
  • Risk/reward considerations, fundamental uncertainty argue against short trade

The Euro put in a bearish Dark Cloud Cover candlestick pattern, hinting that the beginnings of a turn lower against the US Dollar may be starting to take shape. Negative RSI divergence hints at ebbing upside momentum and bolsters the case for a downside scenario.

From here, a daily close below rising trend line support at 1.0684 opens the door for a test of the 14.6% Fibonacci expansion at 1.0589. Alternatively, a push upward that breaches the 38.2% Fib retracement at 1.0828 paves the way for a challenge of the 50% threshold at 1.0978.

Risk/reward considerations argue against taking a short position at current levels as prices sit squarely atop near-term support. Furthermore, the threat of renewed “Trump trade” unwinding makes for a vulnerable greenback. On balance, opting for the sidelines seems prudent for now.

Will the Euro continue to rise through the first quarter of 2017? See our forecast and find out!

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: A Top in Place Below 1.08?

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