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EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Upswing May Yield Short Trade Setup

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Upswing May Yield Short Trade Setup

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

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Talking Points:

The Euro accelerated downward against the US Dollar as expected, dropping to the lowest level in almost 14 years in the aftermath of the FOMC interest rate decision. The move breached critical support in the 1.0449-1.0520 that capped losses since March 2015.

From here, a daily close below the 61.8% Fibonacci expansion at 1.0349 opens the door for a challenge of the 76.4% level at 1.0225. Alternatively, a reversal back above the 1.0449-62 area (50% level, March 13 2015 low) exposes the 1.0520-49 zone (April 13 2015 low, 38.2% Fib).

Risk/reward parameters are skewed against taking a trade at current levels. With that in mind, an entry order to enter short will be set up at 1.0482. If triggered, the trade will initially target 1.0349 and carry a stop-loss to be activated on a daily close above 1.0549.

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