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EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Euro May Be Topping Sub-1.15

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Euro May Be Topping Sub-1.15

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

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Talking Points:

  • EUR/USD Technical Strategy: Flat
  • Bearish Dark Cloud Candlestick Pattern Hints Euro May Be Topping vs. US Dollar
  • Lack of Confirmation, Poor Risk/Reward Setup Call for Patience Before Entering Short

The Euro put in a bearish Dark Cloud Cover candlestick pattern, hinting prices may be carvinga top below the 1.15 figure against the US Dollar.

Near-term support is now at 1.1346, the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion, with a break below that on a daily closing basis opening the door for a challenge of the 38.2% level at 1.1254. Alternatively, a reversal back above the 14.6% Fib at 1.1402 – now acting as resistance – clears the way for another test of the October 14 high at 1.1494.

We are keen to enter short EURUSD in line with the long-term down trend. Current positioning argues for patience however. First, the monthly series of higher highs and lows remains intact, suggesting confirmation of reversal is still absent. Furthermore, the immediate trading range of 56 pips is much too narrow to justify a trade from a risk/reward perspective given ATR in excess of 100 pips. We will remain flat for now.

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EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Euro May Be Topping Sub-1.15

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