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Talking Points:
- EUR/USD Technical Strategy: Flat
- Euro Poised to Continue Higher After Breaking Triangle Pattern Resistance
- Waiting to Enter Short in Line with Long-Term Trend After Upswing Fizzles
The Euro looks poised to continue higher against the US Dollar after prices took out the top of a Triangle consolidation pattern. The breakout suggests the upside correction launched in mid-March has more room to develop beforethe larger multi-year down trend resumes.
Near-term resistance is now at 1.1432, the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion, with a break above that on a daily closing basis opening the door for a challenge of the 50% level at 1.1539. Alternatively, a move below resistance-turned-support at 1.1265 clears the way for a descent to the 1.1028-86 area, marked by the September 3 low and a rising trend line.
We continue to see Euro gains as corrective within the context of a structural decline launched in mid-2008. With that in mind, we will opt not to pursue a long position. Instead, we will wait for the upswing to show signs of exhaustion and look to enter short once an attractive opportunity to do so presents itself.
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