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EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Euro Recovery Poised to Continue

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Euro Recovery Poised to Continue

Ilya Spivak,

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Talking Points:

  • EUR/USD Technical Strategy: Flat
  • Euro Poised to Continue Higher After Breaking Triangle Pattern Resistance
  • Waiting to Enter Short in Line with Long-Term Trend After Upswing Fizzles

The Euro looks poised to continue higher against the US Dollar after prices took out the top of a Triangle consolidation pattern. The breakout suggests the upside correction launched in mid-March has more room to develop beforethe larger multi-year down trend resumes.

Near-term resistance is now at 1.1432, the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion, with a break above that on a daily closing basis opening the door for a challenge of the 50% level at 1.1539. Alternatively, a move below resistance-turned-support at 1.1265 clears the way for a descent to the 1.1028-86 area, marked by the September 3 low and a rising trend line.

We continue to see Euro gains as corrective within the context of a structural decline launched in mid-2008. With that in mind, we will opt not to pursue a long position. Instead, we will wait for the upswing to show signs of exhaustion and look to enter short once an attractive opportunity to do so presents itself.

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