Talking Points:
- EUR/JPY Technical Strategy: Retracement in bullish trend continues to hold higher-low support.
- The pair has oscillated within a ~140 pip range over the past two weeks, with multiple tests of support holding-up the longer-term trend.
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In our last article, we looked at EUR/JPY moving-down to a key level of support. The pair put in quite the performance in the middle two quarters of 2017, jumping from a mid-April low below 115.00 to set a fresh 2017 high just a few weeks ago at 134.41. This move, of course, has been driven by a host of fundamental factors revolving around both the Euro and the Japanese Yen, and as we near what’s expected to be a pivotal European Central Bank meeting later in the month, that previously bullish move has continued to digest around higher-low support.
EUR/JPY Daily: Higher Low Holding Around Fibonacci, Trend-Line Support
Chart prepared by James Stanley
At current, both near-term support and resistance are being defined at least in-part by retracement levels from longer-term Fibonacci studies. The price of 132.05 is the 50% retracement of the 2008-2012 major move and this, along with the prior swing-high at 131.70 is helping to set current support. And on the resistance side, 134.41 is the 61.8% retracement of the 2014-2016 major move; and after two days of testing in mid-September, bears took over and brought prices down to that higher-low.
EUR/JPY Monthly: Long-Term Fibonacci Retracements Helping to Set Near-Term Support, Resistance
Chart prepared by James Stanley
Continued support around the longer-term retracement at 132.05 opens the door for bullish exposure in the pair. Traders can investigate stops either below 131.71 for a more aggressive approach, or below the prior swing at 130.56 for a more conservative stance with more room to work on the initial entry. For those taking the more aggressive approach, a re-test of the prior swing-high around 133.00 can be used to adjust stops to breakeven. The level of 134.41 is particularly interesting for bullish targets, as this Fib level had offered a couple of days of resistance previously; and if this is taken out, the psychological level at 135.00 becomes attractive for next topside targets.
EUR/JPY Four-Hour: Trend-Line, Fibonacci Support Helping to Hold the Higher-Low
Chart prepared by James Stanley
--- Written by James Stanley, Strategist for DailyFX.com
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