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EUR/GBP Technical Analysis: Aiming Above 0.81 Figure?

EUR/GBP Technical Analysis: Aiming Above 0.81 Figure?

2016-04-06 07:50:00
Ilya Spivak, Sr. Currency Strategist
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Talking Points:

  • EUR/GBP Technical Strategy: Flat
  • Euro resumes rally, hits highest level since September 2014 vs. Pound
  • Looking to enter short in line with long-term trend after upswing fizzles

The Euro resumed its advance against the British Pound after brief pause, pushing upward to the highest level since September 2014. A break of chart resistance now appears to pave the way for continued gains to prove above the 0.81 figure.

A daily close above the 50% Fibonacci expansion at 0.8126 sees the next upside barrier at 0.8238, the 61.8% level. Alternatively, a reversal back below the 38.2% Fib at 0.8014 opens the door for a challenge of resistance-turned-support at 0.7928, the February 25 high.

While technical positioning argues for gains, our2016 fundamental forecast envisions the resumption of the long-term EUR/GBP down trend, casting recent gains as corrective. Furthermore, the pair’s sensitivity to risk sentiment trends warns against initiating new exposure as critical event risk looms ahead by way of minutes from the March FOMC meeting. With that in mind, we will remain flat.

What do DailyFX analysts expect from the Euro in the second quarter? Find out here!

EUR/GBP Technical Analysis: Aiming Above 0.81 Figure?

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