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EUR/GBP Technical Analysis: Waiting to Enter Short Trade

EUR/GBP Technical Analysis: Waiting to Enter Short Trade

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

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Talking Points:

  • EUR/GBP Technical Strategy: Flat
  • Technical Positioning Continues to Hint Euro Top vs. British Pound Taking Shape
  • Absence of Discrete Reversal Signal, Looming Event Risk Argue Against Short Trade

Euro technical positioning continues to warn of a possible top being formed against the British Pound as negative RSI divergence warns of ebbing upside momentum. Prices narrowly overturned bearish cues noted late last week but the case for a downside reversal has yet to be invalidated in earnest.

A reversal below the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion at 0.7181 opens the door for a challenge of the 38.2% level at 0.7106. Alternatively, a break above the December 8 high at 0.7278 on a daily closing basis paves the way for a test of falling trend line resistance set from August 2013, now at 0.7396.

The long-term EUR/GBP trend continues to favor the downside. In the near term however, the absence of a clear-cut bearish reversal signal hints pulling the trigger on a short trade is premature. Furthermore, a strong inverse correlation between the pair and the S&P 500 warns rally may transpire if risk aversion breaks out following the FOMC policy announcement. With that in mind, we will remain flat for now.

Losing Money Trading Forex? This Might Be Why.

EUR/GBP Technical Analysis: Waiting to Enter Short Trade

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