We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bearish
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Bitcoin
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • The AUD has been hit by the risk-appetite pullback occasioned by the spread of Wuhan-strain coronavirus. This week may see domestic focus return, if headlines allow, with key inflation data due. Get your $AUDUSD market update from @DavidCottleFX here: https://t.co/UIpwno0pSq https://t.co/kib4d1mA0q
  • RT @anilvohra69: USD inverted (red) is correlated to Excess Reserves (blue) and Reserve Balances (green). 1/2 https://t.co/bbO1pPWY4F
  • RT @FactSet: $SPX is reporting a decline in earnings of -1.9% for Q4, led by the Energy (-42%), Consumer Discretionary (-14%), and Material…
  • Becoming a forex trader means living and breathing the excitement, risk and reward of trading in the biggest and most liquid market in the world. Do you have what it takes? Read here to discover the qualities and processes it takes to build consistency: https://t.co/EfWEACQ6Cz https://t.co/6iMyDFqnqe
  • Knowing how to accurately value a #stock enables traders to identify and take advantage of opportunities in the stock market. Find out the difference between a stock's market and intrinsic value, and the importance of the two here: https://t.co/QszmdZFxlk https://t.co/2mjzvYvgSn
  • Previewing the Texas Rangers new home! https://t.co/WITZGSQPlc
  • Thanks for having me on @MartinSEssex https://t.co/fg8uOe16wr
  • The MACD is often used with its default setting when entering trades. However, this versatile indicator can be customized to assist traders in exiting trades too. Learn how to better incorporate the MACD into your trading strategy here: https://t.co/HnY7gzsI2q https://t.co/5F1DSvAXyy
  • What are some factors affecting $GBP as we head into 2020, quarter one? Download your Sterling fundamental forecast with @nickcawley1 here to find out: https://t.co/YfDSYSATK9 https://t.co/ANFLIuDY4J
  • Trading Global Markets new #podcast features @DailyFX Anlayst @PeterHanksFX , who discusses what assets would benefit in the next #recession. Tune into this new podcast episode hosted by @MartinSEssex here: https://t.co/Twr44cZ1GB https://t.co/llKzvZGDpQ
ASX 200 Shows Signs of Topping Out But Don't Trust Them Yet

ASX 200 Shows Signs of Topping Out But Don't Trust Them Yet

2019-07-08 03:00:00
David Cottle, Analyst
Share:

ASX 200 Technical Analysis Talking Points:

  • Strong US labor data has hit global stock markets as investors expect fewer US rate cuts
  • The ASX 200 has slipped and could be sending a strong signal that its long rally is in trouble
  • But it’s far from conclusive

Find out what retail foreign exchange traders make of the Australian Dollar’s chances right now at the DailyFX Sentiment Page.

The ASX 200 is in some danger of flagging a significant reversal on its daily chart, but investors now uncommitted may be well advised to await events.

Fundamentally the index has been hit as have others around the world by the re-pricing of US interest rate expectations. Before last Friday’s surprising blockbuster employment data the market had looked for two quarter point reductions. Now bets have been pared to take that back to just one.

And it’s this coincidence with fundamental events which make makes chart signals perhaps less-than trustworthy. At face value the ASX looks to be in some danger of making an Evening Star candlestick formation. That would be a strong signal that its rally may have topped out.

ASX 200 Daily Chart

It’s perhaps notable too that the index faces a possible relapse back into its former range and, also back within the uptrend channel which had contained trade from February 5 until late June brought an upside break.

Still, Monday’s downward pressure has come at a time when all Asian mainboards are lower. Moreover, the mid-session daily candle of this putative Evening Star is a Sunday. That’s a day on which trade volumes are light, and on which we can expect to see such small differences between opening and closing prices.

So, it might be best to play ASX downside very gingerly until more evidence is in. If the former range base around 6605 holds through this week, then it will be clear that the bulls retain some fight, at least for the near term. A renewed push up toward record peaks would seem quite likely in that case.

Deeper falls below that old range need not necessarily be terminal for the bullish case, indeed the index does look quite comfortable at altitude. Even the first, 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the rise up from the lows of December last year doesn’t come in until 6,229. Wariness will of course increase if that starts to get close, however.

ASX 200 Resources for Traders

Whether you’re new to trading or an old hand DailyFX has plenty of resources to help you. There’s our trading sentiment indicator which shows you live how IG clients are positioned right now. We also hold educational and analytical webinars and offer trading guides, with one specifically aimed at those new to foreign exchange markets. There’s also a Bitcoin guide. Be sure to make the most of them all. They were written by our seasoned trading experts and they’re all free.

--- Written by David Cottle, DailyFX Research

Follow David on Twitter@DavidCottleFX or use the Comments section below to get in touch!

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.