News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Wall Street
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • #Copper extending gains to highest since 2014 in London -BBG
  • Hang Seng Index (HSI) has likely broken a key resistance level of 26,840, propelled by financial stocks: - HSBC (+5.28%) - Standard Chartered (+3.59%) - Ping An Insurance (+2.45%) https://t.co/XBv5In1NJ5
  • Japanese PM Suga says Japan doing everything it can to protect jobs - BBG
  • The Swiss Franc may continue higher against the US Dollar as technical pressure favors USD/CHF bears..Get your $USDCHF market update from @FxWestwater here:https://t.co/yqJbbhAWiu https://t.co/wMZn4SDCp8
  • Precious Metals Technical Analysis: #Gold and #Silver Rebound at Hand? - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/home/analysis/xau-usd/2020/11/25/Precious-Metals-Technical-Analysis-Gold-and-Silver-Rebound-at-Hand--.html?CHID=9&QPID=917708&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Moss&utm_campaign=twr $GLD $SLVR https://t.co/wHwsO23TLu
  • Currency traders may eye US PCE inflation data today for clues about continuous rising price levels and how it may impact the Fed’s monetary decisions. Find out more on the DailyFX economic calendar. https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#today https://t.co/jlmSkHmhE0
  • Japanese PM Suga: - Employment impact from virus being watched closely - Will take continuous action on labor market if needed $USDJPY
  • The US Dollar lost ground to most ASEAN currencies as Emerging Market assets climbed despite US economic woes. USD/INR is eyeing third-quarter Indian GDP at the end of the week. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/urDN2b5Nwd https://t.co/BZg9Si833v
  • I am generally of the mind that the markets have run far beyond fundamentals and value, which doesn't mean it has to stop imminently. Another leg higher could come on behalf of a US stimulus boost which can supplement th... https://t.co/xu2uA2ylXU https://t.co/Ng8hdHjVJk
  • Japan's Nikkei 225 Index nearly 2% higher as Wednesday's trading session opens https://t.co/uoS9pGIvGa
ASX 200 Technical Analysis: Upside Failure Puts Focus On Support

ASX 200 Technical Analysis: Upside Failure Puts Focus On Support

2018-03-06 05:30:00
David Cottle, Analyst
Share:

Talking Points:

  • The ASX 200 has failed again above the 6000 point
  • Near-term focus is on the retracement of the past two weeks’ gains
  • Domestic events may cloud the week’s picture

Trade all the major Asia Pacific economic data live and interactive at the DailyFX Webinars. Join me on Wednesday for live coverage of Australia’s GDP data release.

The ASX 200 is making heavy weather at present with the latest upward foray stopping just short of its previous significant peak.

The highs seen at the end of February in the 6088 region failed to hold in quite short order. The index has retreated more than 100 points since, abandoning the psychologically crucial 6000 mark yet again in the process.

Those highs in turn barred the way up to January’s peak of 6158, which was a summit not previously scaled for ten years.

ASX 200 Technical Analysis: Upside Failure Puts Focus On Support

So what next? Well, the index certainly seems to be caught in a long meander lower, one that doesn’t seem likely to break conclusively unless it can show more comfort above that 6,000 point than it has for more than a decade. This doesn’t seem likely in the near-future, and various domestic risk events still loom this week. The Reserve Bank of Australia kept interest rates on hold at record lows Tuesday and stuck to old worries about stickily-low inflation and high consumer debt. However, still to come are Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Lowe’s speech in Sydney on Wednesday and the release of official growth data on the same day.

Both could cause some knee-jerk reaction either way for AUD/USD and, perhaps, for the ASX. However, it seems unlikely that either will be sufficient to conclusively break the current bias, which is clearly if modestly to the downside.

With that in mind keep an eye this week on Fibonacci retracements of the recent rise from the lows of February 9 to the last important high made on February 27. The first retracement gave way on February 28 when the 5988.88 level gave way. However, the second, 38.2% retracement broadly held at 5927.3 and, indeed, provided platform for the bounce we have seen this week.

Should it give way in turn, however, then the 50% retracement at 5877.6, and the 76.4% retracement at 57666.4 will come into downside focus. These seem likely to be short-term levels to watch once this week’s events have been dealt with. Bullish momentum won’t be regained at all unless that previous, 6088 peak can be regained and consolidated.

It’s probably worth pointing out that, while the ASX is currently languishing, it’s very broad, long-term monthly chart uptrend remains very much in play. That goes all the way back to the immediate post-financial-crisis days of 2009.

However, that uptrend is now clashing against all the psychological baggage brought about by an approach to 6000- a region at which the index has not looked truly comfortable for much longer than even than the ten years which have elapsed since its last visit.

It’s probably gloomily notable (if you’re a bull) that the index hasn’t spent much time attacking the top of that range since 2015.

ASX 200 Technical Analysis: Upside Failure Puts Focus On Support

Resources for Traders

Whether you’re new to trading or an old hand DailyFX has plenty of resources to help you. There’s our trading sentiment indicator which shows you live how IG clients are positioned right now. We also offer trading guides, with one specifically aimed at those new to foreign exchange markets. There’s also a Bitcoin guide. Be sure to make the most of them all. They were written by our seasoned trading experts. Best of all, each one of them is free.

--- Written by David Cottle, DailyFX Research

Follow David on Twitter @DavidCottleFX or use the Comments section below to get in touch!

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES