Skip to Content
News & Analysis at your fingertips.
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
Select

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar Events

0

Notify me about

Live Webinar Events
Economic Calendar Events

H

High

M

Medium

L

Low
More View More
Australian Dollar Technical Forecast: AUD/USD Breakout Levels

Australian Dollar Technical Forecast: AUD/USD Breakout Levels

What's on this page

Australian Dollar Technical Price Outlook: AUD/USD Weekly Trade Levels

  • Australian Dollar technical trade level update - Weekly Chart
  • AUD/USD carves monthly opening-range around yearly open- breakout pending
  • Resistance 7270, 7380-7413, 7531 (key) - Support 7115, 6991-7016 (critical)
Advertisement

The Australian Dollar is attempting to mark a second consecutive weekly advance against the US Dollar this week with AUD/USD carving out a well defined monthly opening-range around the yearly open. The December recovery may be vulnerable in the days ahead and we’re looking for a breakout to offer guidance on our medium-term direction bias. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the AUD/USD weekly price chart. Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Aussie technical setup and more.

Australian Dollar Price Chart – AUD/USD Weekly

Australian Dollar Price Chart - AUD/USD Weekly - Aussie Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; AUD/USD on Tradingview

Notes: The Australian Dollar rebounded off key support in December at the November 2020 low / 2020 yearly open at 6991-7016 with Aussie rallying nearly 4% into the close of the year. Since then, AUD/USD has been trading within a 2.59% range with the January opening-range preserved around the yearly open- the focus is on a breakout for guidance in the days ahead.

Yearly open resistance stands at 7270 with a break of the highs exposing the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 2021 yearly range / 100% extension of the December advance at 7380-7413 and the 52-week moving average at ~7470. Ultimately a breach / close above the 7531 pivot zone is needed to validate a breakout of the 2021 downtrend. Initial support is rests with the 61.8% retracement of the December advance at 7115 – weakness beyond this threshold is would once again expose key support at 6991-7016 (look for a larger reaction there IF reached).

AUD Forecast
AUD Forecast
Recommended by Michael Boutros
Download Our Latest Quarterly Aussie Price Forecasts!
Get My Guide

Bottom line: The Australian Dollar recovery may be vulnerable while below the yearly open here. From a trading standpoint, the focus is on a break of the January range for guidance- losses should be limited to 7115 IF price is heading higher.I’ll publish an updated Australian Dollar Price Outlook once we get further clarity on the near-term AUD/USD technical trade levels.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Australian Dollar Trader Sentiment – AUD/USD Price Chart

Australian Dollar Trader Sentiment - AUD/USD Price Chart - Aussie Retail Positioning - Technical Outlook
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long AUD/USD - the ratio stands at +1.60 (61.60% of traders are long) – typically bearish reading
  • Long positions are 5.85% higher than yesterday and 9.63% higher from last week
  • Short positions are11.88% lower than yesterday and 24.43% lower from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests AUD/USD prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a stronger AUD/USD-bearish contrarian trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.
AUD/USD Bearish
Data provided by
of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily 10% -17% -3%
Weekly 51% -32% 2%
Learn how shifts in Aussie retail positioning impact trend
Get My Guide

---

Key Australia / US Data Releases

Key Australia / US Data Releases - AUD/USD Economic Calendar - Aussie Weekly Event Risk

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

Previous Weekly Technical Charts

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES