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Australian Dollar Forecast: AUD/USD Reversal Back at Key Pivot Zone

Australian Dollar Forecast: AUD/USD Reversal Back at Key Pivot Zone

Michael Boutros, Strategist

Australian Dollar Technical Price Outlook: AUD/USD Weekly Trade Levels

  • Australian Dollar technical trade level update - Weekly Chart
  • AUD/USD reverses back into key technical pivot zone – risk for price inflection ahead
  • Aussie support 7328, 7248 (key) - resistance 7480s, bearish invalidation at 7531

The Australian Dollar is off just 0.17% against the US Dollar since the start of the week with AUD/USD now off more than 2% off the monthly highs. The decline takes Aussie into a key technical pivot zone we’ve been tracking for months now and we’re looking for possible price inflection off this region in the days ahead. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the AUD/USD weekly price chart. Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Aussie technical setup and more.

Australian Dollar Price Chart – AUD/USD Weekly

Australian Dollar Price Chart - AUD/USD Weekly - Aussie Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; AUD/USD on Tradingview

Notes: In last month’s Australian Dollar Weekly Price Outlook we noted that Aussie, “broke a major technical support confluence and keeps the focus lower in AUD/USD while below the objective August open at 7328.” Our focus was on, “the first major support target at 7122 with a key technical pivot zone just lower at 7016/52- risk for downside exhaustion into these levels.” Price registered a low at 7105 before reversing sharply higher with a 5.2% rally stretching to a high at 7478 before pulling back. Price is BACK at the 7328 pivot zone on Tuesday with Australia employment data on tap tomorrow night- looking for a reaction / price inflection here.

A break back lower from here would keep the focus back on the highlighted support confluence at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the August rally at 7248- a close below this threshold would be needed to mark resumption of the broader downtrend with such a scenario exposing 7122 and critical support at 7016/52. Weekly resistance remains with the medina-line (currently ~7480s) backed by broader bearish invalidation at the 52-week moving average / March low at 7515/31- a topside breach / close above would suggest a larger trend reversal is underway.

Bottom line: The Australian Dollar pullback is at a major pivot zone – looking for inflection off this threshold. From a trading standpoint, a good zone to reduce short-exposure / lower protective stops – on the lookout for possible downside exhaustion ahead of 7248 IF price is still heading higher. Ultimately a breach / close above the median-line would be needed to suggest more significant low is in place. Stay nimble here - Aussie employment data is on tap tomorrow with US retail sales slated for Thursday. Review my latest Australian Dollar Price Outlook for a closer look at the near-term AUD/USD technical trade levels.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Australian Dollar Trader Sentiment – AUD/USD Price Chart

Australian Dollar Trader Sentiment - AUD/USD Price Chart - Aussie Retail Positioning - Technical Outlook
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long AUD/USD - the ratio stands at +1.08 (51.98% of traders are long) – neutral reading
  • Long positions are 6.07% higher than yesterday and 22.97% higher from last week
  • Short positions are1.11% lower than yesterday and 20.14% lower from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests AUD/USD prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a stronger AUD/USD-bearish contrarian trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.


Key Australia / US Data Releases

Key Australia / US Data Reeases - AUD/USD Economic Calendar - Aussie Event Risk Ahead

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

Previous Weekly Technical Charts

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.