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Australian Dollar Forecast: Aussie Bulls Halted– Range Break Imminent

Australian Dollar Forecast: Aussie Bulls Halted– Range Break Imminent

Michael Boutros, Strategist

Australian Dollar Technical Price Outlook: AUD/USD Weekly Trade Levels

  • Australian Dollar technical trade level update - Weekly Chart
  • AUD/USD reverses sharply off technical resistance – range breakout imminent
  • Aussie key support into 7563– key resistance steady at 7836

The Australian Dollar plummeted more than 1.4% against the US Dollar since the start of the week with AUD/USD reversing off technical resistance at the yearly high-close. The pullback puts into focus a critical range of influence and we’re looking for a breakout in the days ahead to offer guidance with the long-side vulnerable below this week’s high. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the AUD/USD weekly price chart heading into the close of the year. Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Aussie technical setup and more.

Australian Dollar Price Chart – AUD/USD Weekly

Australian Dollar Price Chart - AUD/USD Weekly - Aussie Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; AUD/USD on Tradingview

Notes: In last month’s Australian Dollar Weekly Price Outlook we noted that AUD/USD was testing confluence support around the yearly opening-range lows, “at 7563- a break / close below would be needed to suggest a larger Aussie correction is underway” An April defense of the 2020 trendline fueled a rally of more than 4.7% off the lows the advance faltering yet again this week into confluence resistance at 7836/66- a region defined by the 88.6% retracement of the 2018 decline and the objective 2021 high-close. The battle lines are drawn and the immediate focus is on a breakout of the 7701-7866 range for guidance.

A break / close below channel support here would risk another run on the yearly opening-range lows at 7563 backed by the May 2017 low-week close / 23.6% retracement at 7385-7417 - an area of interest for possible exhaustion IF reached. A topside breach above 7866 would ultimately be needed to mark resumption of the broader uptrend with such a scenario exposing subsequent resistance objective into the yearly high at 8007 and the 2018 high-week close / 2017 high at 8108/25.

Bottom line: The Australian Dollar has once again responded to weekly technical resistance and leaves the bulls vulnerable while below 7866. From a trading standpoint, look for inflection off yearly-open support for guidance – recoveries should be capped by 7800 IF price is indeed heading lower with a close below 7700 needed to suggest a more significant reversal is underway. Review my latest Australian Dollar Price Outlook for a closer look at the near-term AUD/USD technical trade levels.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Australian Dollar Trader Sentiment – AUD/USD Price Chart

Australian Dollar Trader Sentiment - AUD/USD Price Chart - Aussie Retail Positioning - Technical Outlook
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long AUD/USD - the ratio stands at +1.14 (53.21% of traders are long) – weak bearish reading
  • Long positions are 15.60% higher than yesterday and 18.92% higher from last week
  • Short positions are20.90% lower than yesterday and 25.06% lower from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests AUD/USD prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a stronger AUD/USD-bearish contrarian trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.


Key Australia / US Data Releases

Key Australia / US Data Releases - AUD/USD Economic Calendar - Aussie Weekly Event Risk

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

Previous Weekly Technical Charts

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.