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AUD/USD May Drop Toward 0.74 as Prices Probe Past Range Floor

AUD/USD May Drop Toward 0.74 as Prices Probe Past Range Floor

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

AUD/USD TECHNICAL OUTLOOK: BEARISH

  • Australian Dollar may drop toward 0.74 if prices confirm range breakdown
  • Head and Shoulders topping pattern hints at extension toward 0.72 is ahead
  • Retail trader sentiment flags rebound possibility, but the signal is flimsy yet
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The Australian Dollar looks to be accelerating lower anew after a brief period of consolidation in a narrow range centered around the 0.76 figure. The currency are poking through support at 0.7564 against its US counterpart. Confirmation on a daily closing basis looks likely to open the door for a challenge of resistance-turned-support in the 0.7413-62 area.

Sizing up positioning more broadly, AUD/USD looks to have carved out a somewhat unsightly Head and Shoulders topping pattern, with the most recent digestive pause in the selloff following a break of the formation’s upward-sloping neckline. This construction implies deeper losses beyond the push toward 0.74, pointing to a measured move extending down to just above the 0.72 mark.

Neutralizing selling pressure appears to require a reversal upward that puts prices above the falling trend line connecting swing tops since late February. That would violate the series of lower highs and lows carved out over the past month – invalidating the near-term bearish bias by definition – and probably set the stage for a probe above the 0.78 handle. The peak near 0.80 follows thereafter.

Australian Dollar vs US Dollar price chart - daily

AUD/USD daily chart created with TradingView

AUD/USD TRADER SENTIMENT

IG Client Sentiment (IGCS) retail positioning data shows 53.63% of traders are net-long, with the long-to-short ratio at 1.16 to 1. This is typically used as a contrarian indicator, so the current setting suggests that the AUD/USD trend is biased downward.

However, traders are less net-long compared with yesterday and a week ago, which may imply that a shift in sentiment is brewing ahead. That might flag an on-coming rebound, but the narrow long/short split leaves ample room for positioning to become more extreme before such a move seems imminent.

AUD/USD retail trader positioning vs price

See the full IGCS sentiment report here.

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--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC for DailyFX.com

To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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