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Australian Dollar Outlook: Aussie Building Breakout- AUD/USD Levels

Australian Dollar Outlook: Aussie Building Breakout- AUD/USD Levels

Michael Boutros, Strategist

Australian Dollar Technical Price Outlook: Near-term Trade Levels

  • Australian Dollar technical trade level update – Daily & Intraday Charts
  • AUD/USD craves monthly opening-range just below technical resistance
  • Constructive while above-7635 - Key resistance into 7836

The Australian Dollar is fractionally higher against the US Dollar this week after paring early losses with the broader Aussie rally still vulnerable while below a key resistance zone we’ve been tracking for months now. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the AUD/USD technical price charts. Review my latest Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Aussie setup and more.

Australian Dollar Price Chart – AUD/USD Daily

Australian Dollar Price Chart - AUD/USD Daily - Aussie Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; AUD/USD on Tradingview

Technical Outlook: In last month’s Australian Dollar Price Outlook noted to be on, “the lookout for a reaction on a stretch towards the upper parallels / Fibonacci resistance for guidance IF reached. Use caution here – the advance is mature and the risk rises for a washout as price approaches pitchfork resistance.” Aussie rallied to a key resistance confluence into the yearly open at the 2018 yearly open / 88.6% Fibonacci retracement of the 2018 decline at 7801/36 (high registered at 7820) before turning lower with the monthly opening-range now set just below.

Monthly open support rests at 7701 backed by 7635 / the median-line – a break / close below would be needed to suggest a larger bull-market correction is underway towards the lower parallels / 2018 May low-day close at 7455. A topside breach of this key resistance zone exposes pitchfork resistance / the March 2018 high at 7916- look for a larger reaction there IF reached.

Australian Dollar Price Chart – AUD/USD 120min

Australian Dollar Price Chart - AUD/USD 120min - Aussie Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast

Notes: A closer look at Aussie price action shows AUD/USD trading within the confines of a near-term descending pitchfork formation with price testing the upper parallel in early US trade. Although a breach here would shift the focus higher heading into Friday, key resistance stands just higher into 7801/36- look for inflection there IF reached with a breach likely to fuel an accelerated breakout. Initial support 7732 backed by the weekly opening-range low at 7666 and 7627/35.

Bottom line: The Australian Dollar pulled back from uptrend resistance and the immediate focus is on a breakout of the January opening-range for guidance. From a trading standpoint, look to reduce long-exposure / raise protective stops on a stretch into 7801/36 with the broader Aussie advance vulnerable while below this threshold. Ultimately, a larger pullback may offer more favorable opportunities with a breach / close above the monthly range highs needed to mark resumption of the broader uptrend. Review my latest Australian Dollar Weekly Price Outlook for a closer look at the longer-term AUD/USD technical trade levels.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Australian Dollar Trader Sentiment – AUD/USD Price Chart

Australian Dollar Trader Sentiment - AUD/USD Price Chart - Aussie Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-short AUD/USD - the ratio stands at -1.09 (47.75% of traders are long) – neutral reading
  • Long positions are 18.67% higher than yesterday and 38.30% higher from last week
  • Short positions are3.40% lower than yesterday and 1.63% lower from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests AUD/USD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current AUD/USD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.


Key Australia / US Data Releases

Key Australia / US Data Releases - AUD/USD Economic Calendar - Aussie Event Risk

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

Active Technical Setups

- Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.