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Australian Dollar Forecast: Aussie Breakout Stalls into December Open

Australian Dollar Forecast: Aussie Breakout Stalls into December Open

Michael Boutros, Strategist

Australian Dollar Technical Price Outlook: AUD/USD Weekly Trade Levels

  • Australian Dollar technical trade level update - Weekly Chart
  • AUD/USD breakout stalls ahead of yearly highs
  • Aussie bulls look for breach above 7413 to mark resumption – key support at 7295
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The Australian Dollar is fractionally lower against the US Dollar this week with AUD/USD trading just below the yearly highs. A rally of nearly 6% off the November low fueled a breakout above a critical technical confluence at multi-year down trend resistance – the breakout has lost some steam into the start of December trade and we’re looking to validate this pivot in the days ahead. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the AUD/USD weekly price chart. for an in-depth breakdown of this Aussie trade setup and more.

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Australian Dollar Price Chart – AUD/USD Weekly

Australian Dollar Price Chart - AUD/USD Weekly - Aussie Trade Outlook - AUDUSD Technical Forecast

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; AUD/USD on Tradingview

Notes: In my last Australian Dollar Weekly Price Outlook we noted that Aussie was, “testing a multi-year downtrend resistance confluence – bulls are vulnerable sub-7329.” A breakout above this threshold last week closed above the 2011 parallel but failed to breach the objective yearly highs at 7413the weekly / monthly opening-range is taking shape right in between.

A breach / close above 7413 is needed to validate the breakout towards the December 2017 low at 7503 and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 2011 decline at 7635. Initial weekly support at the May 2017 low at 7329 backed by the 2018 high at 7295- a break / weekly close below this level would threaten a larger price reversal is underway. Critical support steady at the 2020/2019 objective yearly opens at 7016/42.

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Bottom line: The Australian Dollar has cleared a major resistance confluence last week but has stalled ahead of the objective yearly highs – is this a false breakout scenario? The significance of this technical region should have yield a larger reaction here and may be a warning for the bulls. From a trading standpoint, the immediate focus is on a break of the 7300-7413 range for guidance with a close above needed to mark resumption towards fresh multi-year highs. Review my latest Australian Dollar Price Outlook for a closer look at the near-term AUD/USD technical trade levels.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Australian Dollar Trader Sentiment – AUD/USD Price Chart

Australian Dollar Trader Sentiment - AUD/USD Price Chart - Aussie Outlook - Technical Forecast
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-short AUD/USD - the ratio stands at -1.86 (34.96% of traders are long) – typically bullishreading
  • Long positions are 8.70% higher than yesterday and 4.96% higher from last week
  • Short positions are7.42% lower than yesterday and 0.20% lower from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests AUD/USD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current AUD/USD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.
AUD/USD Mixed
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of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily 2% -3% -1%
Weekly -12% 24% 5%
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Key Australia / US Data Releases

Key Australia / US Data Releases - AUD/USD Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

Previous Weekly Technical Charts

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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