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Australian Dollar Forecast: AUD/USD Price May Rally to a One-Year High

Australian Dollar Forecast: AUD/USD Price May Rally to a One-Year High

Mahmoud Alkudsi, Analyst
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Aussie Dollar vs US Dollar Technical Outlook

AUD/USD Price U-Turn

On June 30, AUD/USD declined to its lowest level in a week at 0.6832. However, the price reversed higher during the week then closed the weekly candlestick with a 1.1% gain.

The market optimism remained intact as the global monotony and fiscal stimulus measures combined with easing the restrictions in some countries led recently to positive data releases. That said, the increasing numbers of coronavirus cases in the US continue to keep investors jittery.

AUD/USD DAILY PRICE CHART (AUG 20, 2018 – July 9, 2020) Zoomed Out

AUDUSD daily price chart 09-07-20 zoomed out
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AUD/USD DAILY PRICE CHART (April 13 – July 9, 2020) Zoomed IN

AUDUSD daily price chart 09-07-20 zoomed in

On June 16, AUD/USD corrected its upward trend and started a sideways move creating a set of higher lows with lower highs. Later on, the price was rejected on multiple occasions at the low end of the current trading zone 0.6827 – 0.7015 then rallied after indicating that the balance was tipping to the bull's side. Today, the pair has rallied to a four-week high at 0.7001.

A close above the high and of the zone signals that bulls could push AUDUSD towards the 0.7300 handle, and any further close above that level may encourage them to extend the rally towards 0.7414.

On the other hand, any failure in closing above the high end reflects bull’s hesitation and may cause some bull’s exit the market allowing the pair to fall towards the low end of the zone. Any further close below that level could send the market even lower toward 0.6684.

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AUD/USD Four-Hour PRICE CHART (June 10 – July 9, 2020)

AUDUSD four hour price chart 09-07-20

At the start of July, AUD/USD broke and remained above the middle line on the downtrend lines fan originated from the June 10 high at 0.7064, and generated a bullish signal.

Today, the price tests the higher line of the fan hence, any break above this line would generate another bullish signal, while a break below the uptrend line originated from the July 2 low at 0.6901 could produce a bearish signal.

To conclude, a break above 0.7085 may cause a rally towards 0.7160, while a break below 0.6920 may send AUDUSD towards 0.6837.Nonetheless, the weekly support and resistance levels underscored on the four-hour chart should be watched closely.

Written By: Mahmoud Alkudsi, Market Analyst

Please feel free to contact me on Twitter: @Malkudsi

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.