Australian Dollar Analysis and Talking Points
AUD/USD | RBA the Main Domestic Focus
A muted end to the week amid the holiday shortened week in the US. That said, the Australian Dollar continues to track risk sentiment higher, despite the rising concerns over a second wave of COVID cases. However, as we look towards next week, the key risk event for the Australian Dollar is the RBA monetary policy meeting. While little is expected in terms of a change in the RBA’s monetary policy, eyes will be on the rhetoric around the Australian Dollar itself, given the sizeable rise since the March lows.
| Change in | Longs | Shorts | OI |
| Daily | -2% | -5% | -3% |
| Weekly | 11% | -11% | 5% |
RBA Rate Setters Signal Comfort OverAUD
In light of recent commentary, the RBA does not appear to be signalling a great deal of concern over the rise in the Australian Dollar, unlike their NZ counterpart. With this in mind, the reaction in the AUD will largely depend on the commentary around the exchange rate, whereby a continued signal of comfort regarding the current level in the AUD could see the currency make a march towards the 0.70 handle yet again. However, as RBA Harper alludes to, gains in the Aussie above 0.70 could be somewhat shallow.
Australian Dollar Technical Outlook
On the downside, prior resistance, now support is situated at 0.6494, which marks the 100DMA. A break below leaves AUD/USD at risk of a larger drop towards 0.6450, however, for confirmation of a short-term top at 0.6600, a closing break below 0.6400 would be needed. On the upside, a bounce-back would likely be capped at 0.6600 before key resistance in the form of the 200DMA residing at 0.6660. Given the rising tensions between the US and China, the Australian Dollar appears to be vulnerable at current levels. Bias is to the downside, however, 0.6400 handle is key for further shakeout of recent longs.
| Support | Resistance | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.6900 | - | 0.6980 | Jun-23rd High |
| 0.6850 | - | 0.7000 | - |
| 0.6820 | 50% Fib | 0.7062 | 2020 High |
AUD/USD Price Chart: Daily Time Frame
Source: IG Charts
--- Written by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst
Follow Justin on Twitter @JMcQueenFX
