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Australian Dollar Price Outlook: Aussie Rally Stalls at Key Hurdle

Australian Dollar Price Outlook: Aussie Rally Stalls at Key Hurdle

Michael Boutros, Strategist

Australian Dollar Technical Price Outlook: AUD/USD Weekly Trade Levels

  • Australian Dollar technical trade level update - Weekly Chart
  • AUD/USD price recovery stalls at former downtrend support
  • Aussie constructive while above 5724- topside breach exposes 6450

The Australian Dollar is down more than 1.7% against the US Dollar this week with Aussie reversing off confluence technical resistance early in the session. While the immediate risk may be weighted to the downside, we’re on the lookout for an exhaustion low in the days ahead with US Non-Farm payrolls and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) interest rate decision on tap. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the AUD/USD weekly price chart. for an in-depth breakdown of this Aussie trade setup and more.

Australian Dollar Price Chart – AUD/USD Weekly

Australian Dollar Price Chart - AUD/USD Weekly - Aussie Trade Outlook - AUDUSD Technical Forecast

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; AUD/USD on Tradingview

Notes: In my last Australian Dollar Price Outlook we noted that the AUD/USD price collapse had, “responded to a key support confluence and leaves the broader short-bias at risk while above 5500” Aussie rebounded nearly 13% off the lows over the past two weeks with the advance failing this week at confluence resistance around the 2008 low-close at 6196.

Note that the lower parallel of a multi-year descending pitchfork formation converges on this zone - a close above this threshold is needed to unleash the next leg higher in Aussie with such a scenario exposing 6269 and key resistance at 6433/49- look for a bigger reaction there IF reached.

Initial support rests with the 2008 low at 6006 backed closely by 5943- both levels of interest for downside exhaustion / entries IF reached. Broader bullish invalidation now raised to the 2001 high / 61.8% retracement at 5724/76(note the low-week close at 5806).

Bottom line: The Australian Dollar recovery is testing the first major resistance hurdle here just below the 62-handle. From a trading standpoint, we’re on the lookout for an exhaustion low while above 5800 with a breach higher exposing topside objectives toward median-line / Fibonacci resistance near 6450. I’ll publish and updated Australian Dollar Price Outlook for a closer look at the near-term AUD/USD technical trade levels.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Australian Dollar Trader Sentiment – AUD/USD Price Chart

Australian Dollar Trader Sentiment - AUD/USD Price Chart - Aussie Technical Forecast
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long AUD/USD - the ratio stands at +1.54 (60.58% of traders are long) – bearish reading
  • Long positions are 17.26% lower than yesterday and 20.04% lower from last week
  • Short positions are12.60% lower than yesterday and 26.68% higher from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests AUD/USD prices may continue to fall. Yet traders are less net-long than yesterday and compared with last week and the recent changes in sentiment warn that the current Aussie price trend may soon reverse higher despite the fact traders remain net-long.

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Key Australia / US Data Releases

Key Australia / US Data Releases - AUD/USD Trade Outlook - Aussie Technical Forecast

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

Previous Weekly Technical Charts

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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