AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR OUTLOOK HINGES ON UPCOMING AUSSIE JOBS REPORT
- AUD/USD overnight implied volatility jumped to 9.04% ahead of the Australian jobs report slated to cross the wires Thursday at 00:30 GMT which has potential to sway RBA rate cut odds
- The Australian Dollar could come under pressure if the Aussie employment data disappoints whereas AUD price action could edge higher if the labour market remains on solid footing
- IG Client Sentiment data on the Australian Dollar indicates a bearish trading bias for spot AUD/USD
The Aussie comes into focus with the latest Australian jobs report on deck for release Thursday at 00:30 GMT. The direction of the Australian Dollar over the short-term stands to be driven overwhelmingly by the closely watched economic data with AUD price action likely responding to changes in RBA rate cut expectations. Currently, there is an 85.6% probability that the RBA leaves its policy interest rate unchanged at 0.75% through year-end according to overnight swaps pricing.
AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR IMPLIED VOLATILITY & TRADING RANGES (OVERNIGHT)
AUD/USD overnight implied volatility climbed to 9.04% from the prior day’s reading of 8.34%. This compares to AUD/USD’s average overnight implied reading of 7.03% over the last 6-months. AUD/USD overnight implied volatility of 9.04% can be used to derive its implied trading range between 0.6805 and 0.6869 which, statistically speaking, should encompass spot price action with a 68% statistical probability.
AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR RISK REVERSALS (OVERNIGHT)
Forex options traders appear to have a mixed bias on the Australian Dollar headed into the latest release of Australia employment change figures judging by AUD overnight risk reversals. A risk reversal reading above zero indicates that the demand for call option volatility (upside protection) exceeds that of put option volatility (downside protection).
AUD/USD PRICE CHART & IG CLIENT SENTIMENT: 4-HOUR TIME FRAME (JUNE 01, 2019 TO NOVEMBER 13, 2019)
According to the latest IG Client Sentiment Report, 59.09% of spot AUD/USD retail traders are net-long resulting in a ratio of traders long-to-short at 1.44 to 1. Also, the sentiment data details that the number of traders net-long is 7.63% higher than yesterday and 20.75% higher compared to last week’s reading whereas the number of traders net-short is 7.47% lower than yesterday and 18.47% lower from last week. That said, we typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment. Correspondingly, seeing that AUD/USD retail traders remain net-long have increased net-long exposure, we hold a bearish contrarian trading bias.
Read More - Australian Dollar: AUD/USD & AUD/JPY Charts Eye Reversal
-- Written by Rich Dvorak, Junior Analyst for DailyFX.com
Connect with @RichDvorakFX on Twitter for real-time market insight
