Skip to Content
News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
Select

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar Events

0

Notify me about

Live Webinar Events
Economic Calendar Events

H

High

M

Medium

L

Low
More View More
AUD/USD: Aussie Dollar in Focus Ahead of Australian Jobs Report

AUD/USD: Aussie Dollar in Focus Ahead of Australian Jobs Report

Rich Dvorak, Analyst

Share:

What's on this page

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR OUTLOOK HINGES ON UPCOMING AUSSIE JOBS REPORT

  • AUD/USD overnight implied volatility jumped to 9.04% ahead of the Australian jobs report slated to cross the wires Thursday at 00:30 GMT which has potential to sway RBA rate cut odds
  • The Australian Dollar could come under pressure if the Aussie employment data disappoints whereas AUD price action could edge higher if the labour market remains on solid footing
  • IG Client Sentiment data on the Australian Dollar indicates a bearish trading bias for spot AUD/USD

The Aussie comes into focus with the latest Australian jobs report on deck for release Thursday at 00:30 GMT. The direction of the Australian Dollar over the short-term stands to be driven overwhelmingly by the closely watched economic data with AUD price action likely responding to changes in RBA rate cut expectations. Currently, there is an 85.6% probability that the RBA leaves its policy interest rate unchanged at 0.75% through year-end according to overnight swaps pricing.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR IMPLIED VOLATILITY & TRADING RANGES (OVERNIGHT)

Australian Dollar Price Chart Outlook AUDUSD Implied Volatility Trading Range

AUD/USD overnight implied volatility climbed to 9.04% from the prior day’s reading of 8.34%. This compares to AUD/USD’s average overnight implied reading of 7.03% over the last 6-months. AUD/USD overnight implied volatility of 9.04% can be used to derive its implied trading range between 0.6805 and 0.6869 which, statistically speaking, should encompass spot price action with a 68% statistical probability.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR RISK REVERSALS (OVERNIGHT)

Australian Dollar Chart of Implied Volatility AUDUSD AUDJPY AUDNZD AUDCAD EURAUD GBPAUD

Forex options traders appear to have a mixed bias on the Australian Dollar headed into the latest release of Australia employment change figures judging by AUD overnight risk reversals. A risk reversal reading above zero indicates that the demand for call option volatility (upside protection) exceeds that of put option volatility (downside protection).

AUD/USD PRICE CHART & IG CLIENT SENTIMENT: 4-HOUR TIME FRAME (JUNE 01, 2019 TO NOVEMBER 13, 2019)

AUDUSD Price Chart Australian Dollar Sentiment

According to the latest IG Client Sentiment Report, 59.09% of spot AUD/USD retail traders are net-long resulting in a ratio of traders long-to-short at 1.44 to 1. Also, the sentiment data details that the number of traders net-long is 7.63% higher than yesterday and 20.75% higher compared to last week’s reading whereas the number of traders net-short is 7.47% lower than yesterday and 18.47% lower from last week. That said, we typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment. Correspondingly, seeing that AUD/USD retail traders remain net-long have increased net-long exposure, we hold a bearish contrarian trading bias.

Read More - Australian Dollar: AUD/USD & AUD/JPY Charts Eye Reversal

-- Written by Rich Dvorak, Junior Analyst for DailyFX.com

Connect with @RichDvorakFX on Twitter for real-time market insight

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES