AUD/USD TECHNICAL OUTLOOK: BEARISH
- Australian Dollar rejected at 11-month downtrend resistance vs USD
- Break of near-term support to beckon next leg of the structural decline
- Longer-term positioning suggests scope to test 2008-2009 crisis lows
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The Australian Dollar is back on the defensive after testing resistance establishing the downtrend against its US counterpart since December 2018. Last week’s resistance break has been overturned and AUD/USD is back to challenge support guiding it higher since the beginning of October.
A break below this barrier confirmed on a daily closing basis would suggest the corrective upswing has been exhausted and the dominant bearish trajectory resumed. A down leg broadly in line with the trend average may see prices testing decade lows near the 0.66 figure.
Daily AUD/USD chart created with TradingView
Longer-term positioning looks still-more ominous. The 2018 break of a 17-year uptrend and the subsequent breach of the 0.69 figure in July of 2019 seems put prices broadly on course to retest lows in the 0.6009-0.6352 region, where prices have not ventured since the 2008 financial crisis.
Monthly AUD/USD chart created with TradingView
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--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
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