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AUD/USD, NZD/USD Outlook: Price Recovery Faces Key Resistance Levels

AUD/USD, NZD/USD Outlook: Price Recovery Faces Key Resistance Levels

Mahmoud Alkudsi, Analyst

AUD/USD, NZD/USD Charts and Analysis

Did we get it right with our Gold and USD Dollar forecasts? Find out more for free from Q4 main currencies and commodities forecasts

AUD/USD, NZD/USD – Weaker Sellers

On Friday, AUD/USD closed the weekly candlestick with a bullish Doji pattern, highlighting a possible reversal as expected in our last update. The price closed with nearly 0.1% gain. Similarly, NZD/USD closed the weekly candlestick in the green with a 0.3% gain.

The relative Strength Index (RSI) has been rising on both pairs since Oct 1 (from 33 to 47) reflecting the weakness of current downtrend momentum on both pairs.

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AUD/USD DAILY PRICE CHART (March 15, 2018 – Oct 8, 2019) Zoomed Out

AUD/USD, NZD/USD Outlook: Price Recovery Faces Key Resistance Levels

AUD/USD DAILY PRICE CHART (July 2 – Oct 8, 2019) Zoomed IN

AUD/USD, NZD/USD Outlook: Price Recovery Faces Key Resistance Levels

Looking at the daily chart, we notice yesterday AUD/USD returned to the same old trading zone abandoned on Friday 0.6631- 0.6744. Therefore, the price may need to close above 50-day average to talk about a possible rally towards 0.6826.

It's worth mentioning the bullish divergence between (RSI) and the price, as AUDUSD created a low with a lower low meanwhile, we find a low with a higher low on the oscillator.

Additionally, AUDUSD could rally towards 0.7000 handle, if breaks and remains above the neckline of a double bottom pattern residing at 0.6894 as shown on the chart (zoomed in). In that scenario, the weekly resistance levels underlined on the chart need to be monitored along the way.

On the other hand, any close below the low end of the zone could resume bearish price action towards 0.6594.

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NZD/USD DAILY PRICE CHART (June 15, 2017 – Oct 8, 2019) Zoomed Out

AUD/USD, NZD/USD Outlook: Price Recovery Faces Key Resistance Levels

NZD/USD DAILY PRICE CHART (July 24 – Oct 1, 2019) Zoomed In

AUD/USD, NZD/USD Outlook: Price Recovery Faces Key Resistance Levels

From the daily chart, we notice on Oct 1 NZD/USD declined to its lowest level in a decade. However, the price remained in the current trading zone 0.6236- 0.6438 indicating to seller’s hesitation to keep pressing the price at this stage.

Additionally, we notice a bullish divergence between (RSI) and the price similar to the one on Aussie Dollar. Hence, NZDUSD could be looking for a test of the high end of the zone contingent on clearing the daily and weekly resistance levels marked on the chart (zoomed in).

That said, any close below the low end of the zone could send NZDUSD towards 0.6136. Although, the daily support level at the Oct 1 low should be considered. See the chart to know more about lower trading zone with weekly support levels to watch in a further bearish scenario.

Written By: Mahmoud Alkudsi

Please feel free to contact me on Twitter: @Malkudsi

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.