Never miss a story from Ilya Spivak

Subscribe to receive daily updates on publications
Please enter valid First Name
Please fill out this field.
Please enter valid Last Name
Please fill out this field.
Please enter valid email
Please fill out this field.
Please select a country

I’d like to receive information from DailyFX and IG about trading opportunities and their products and services via email.

Please fill out this field.

Your Forecast Is Headed to Your Inbox

But don't just read our analysis - put it to the rest. Your forecast comes with a free demo account from our provider, IG, so you can try out trading with zero risk.

Your demo is preloaded with £10,000 virtual funds, which you can use to trade over 10,000 live global markets.

We'll email you login details shortly.

Learn More about Your Demo

You are subscribed to Ilya Spivak

You can manage your subscriptions by following the link in the footer of each email you will receive

An error occurred submitting your form.
Please try again later.

AUD/USD Technical Strategy: FLAT

  • Australian Dollar challenges resistance above 0.73 figure
  • Long-term positioning still favors a broadly bearish bias
  • Waiting for attractive opportunity to enter short position

Get help building confidence in your AUD/USD strategy with our free trading guide!

The Australian Dollar continues to recover against its US counterpart having broken downtrend resistance set from late January last week. Resistance in the 0.7304-15 area is now in focus, with a break above that confirmed on a daily closing basis opening the door for a test of the minor barrier at 0.7382 (August 21 high), followed by former support in the 0.7452-61 zone.

Initial support comes in at 0.7160, marked by a former range top and the upper layer of recently broken trend resistance. A downward reversal that takes prices back below this barrier pave the way for another challenge of support in the 0.7021-41 region, the launch pad for the latest foray to the upside.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis: Upswing Corrective Within Down Trend

Sizing up longer-term positioning seems to paint recent gains as corrective within otherwise broadly bearish positioning. The monthly chart reveals a break of 17-year rising trend support in June, which appears to mark continuation in a down move emanating from the peak set in mid-2011. The current upswing would need to make quite a bit more progress before the validity of that breakdown is challenged.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis: Upswing Corrective Within Down Trend

On balance, this argues in favor of a wait-and-see approach for now. Entering long seems to run counter to the overall trend bias. It is also unattractive from a risk/reward perspective as prices hover just below resistance. Taking up the short side appears to be premature however absent defined evidence suggesting the bounce has topped and the down move is ready to resume.


--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for

To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter