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AUD/USD Technical Analysis: Aussie Downtrend Set to Resume?

AUD/USD Technical Analysis: Aussie Downtrend Set to Resume?

2018-10-17 00:30:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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AUD/USD Technical Strategy: NET SHORT AT 0.7456

  • Australian Dollar retesting nine-month downtrend resistance
  • Near-term positioning hints bearish resumption likely ahead
  • Short AUD/USD trade still in play, October low first in focus

See our Q4 forecasts to learn what will drive key asset prices through year-end!

The Australian Dollar has tepidly recovered to challenge trend resistance guiding it lower against its US counterpart since late January. That barrier is now in the 0.7136-0.7210 area. A daily close above that would neutralize the near-term bearish bias and initially expose the September’s swing highs in the 0.7304-15 zone.

Alternatively, a turn back below the October 8 low at 0.7041 sees the next significant barrier at 0.6900, the September 2015 bottom. That is closely followed by the January 2016 trough at 0.6827.

Australian Dollar vs US Dollar - daily

Shorter-term positioning favors the latter scenario. The four-hour chart reveals the appearance of negative RSI divergence on a test of inflection point resistance, hinting at ebbing upside momentum that might precede reversal. Confirmation on a break of counter-trend support is still pending however.

Australian Dollar vs US Dollar - 4 hour chart

With that in mind, the short AUD/USD trade that was triggered at 0.7608 and subsequently scaled up – first near 0.7530, then at 0.7325 and most recently at 0.7205 – remains in play. The overall cost basis is 0.7456. A stop-loss will be triggered on a dictionary basis.

AUD/USD TRADING RESOURCES

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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