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AUD/USD Technical Analysis: Gains Capped Below 0.80

AUD/USD Technical Analysis: Gains Capped Below 0.80

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

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Talking Points:

  • AUD/USD Technical Strategy: Flat
  • Aussie Dollar still locked in increasingly narrow range below 0.80 figure
  • Clear break to the up- or down-side needed for an actionable trade setup

The Australian Dollar remains stuck in a familiar range below 0.80 against its US cousin even as the greenback struggles against most other major currencies. This disappointing performance may point to considerable underlying Aussie weakness waiting for a substantive trigger to be unleashed.

A daily close below a rising trend line set from May/June lows – now at 0.7900 – opens the door for a test of the 0.7784-0.7805 area (38.2% Fibonacci retracement, August 15 low). Alternatively, a push above the 23.6% Fib expansionat 0.7979 paves the way for a challenge of the 0.8066-87 zone (July 27 high, 38.2% level).

An actionable trade setup seems to be absent at this point. The pair’s inability to build higher and the narrowing range between near-term support and resistance argue against taking up the long side. Meanwhile, the absence of a clear bearish breakout warns that entering short is premature for now. Staying flat seems prudent.

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