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Talking Points:
- AUD/USD Technical Strategy: Flat
- Aussie Dollar testing two-month high after forceful bounce
- Current positioning argues against taking up open exposure
The Australian Dollar jumped to a two-month high against its US counterpart after bouncing from trend line support in place since the beginning of the year. The appearance of a Bullish Engulfing candlestick pattern marked the start of the move upward.
Near-term resistance is now at 0.7554, the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion, with a break above that on a daily closing basis opening the door for a challenge of the 0.7609-24 area (inflection point, 50% level). Alternatively, a move back below the May 23 high at 0.7517 exposes the 23.6% Fib at 0.7468.
An actionable trading opportunity is absent at this time. Prices are too close to resistance to justify entering long and the absence of a clear-cut bearish reversal signal argues against taking up the short side. Furthermore, potentially game-changing event risk looms ahead. On balance, staying flat seems prudent for now.
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