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AUD/USD Technical Analysis: Topping Below 0.78 Figure?

AUD/USD Technical Analysis: Topping Below 0.78 Figure?

2017-02-17 09:59:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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Talking Points:

  • AUD/USD Technical Strategy: Flat
  • Aussie Dollar breaks range top, rises to 3-month high vs. US counterpart
  • RSI divergence hints at downturn but actionable confirmation still absent

The Australian Dollarvaulted to a three-month high after a languishing in a choppy range the against its US counterpartfor nearly two weeks. Negative RSI divergence warns of ebbing upside momentum and hints a turn downward may be brewing ahead.

A daily close below the 14.6% Fibonacci expansion at 0.7685 opens the door for a retest of the February 7 low at 0.7606. Alternatively, a push above the 0.7733-60 area (23.6% Fib, double top) sees the next upside barrier at 0.7811, the 38.2% expansion.

RSI divergence is not sufficient as a standalone reversal signal and calls for confirmation with a more tangible sign of topping. With that in mind, monitoring from the sidelines rather than taking up a short position seems most prudent for the time being.

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AUD/USD Technical Analysis: Topping Below 0.78 Figure?

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