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AUD/USD Technical Analysis: Aussie Jumps Most in 2 Weeks

AUD/USD Technical Analysis: Aussie Jumps Most in 2 Weeks

Ilya Spivak,

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Talking Points:

  • AUD/USD Technical Strategy: Flat
  • Australian Dollar posts largest gain in two weeks vs. US cousin
  • Risk/reward, tactical considerations argue against taking a trade

The Australian Dollarshort sharply higher against its US counterpart, posting the largest advance in two weeks in the wake of impressive trade balance figures. The surge overturns the breakdown below rising trend support identified last week and hints at continued gains ahead.

Near-term support is now at 0.7683, the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion, with a break above that on a daily closing basis opening the door for a test of the 50% level at 0.7736. Alternatively, a reversal back below the 0.7609-18 area (January 24 high, 23.6% Fib) targets support-turned-resistance at 0.7498.

An actionable trade setup looks to be absent at this point. First, the available trading range is too narrow relative to ATR to satisfy risk/reward considerations. Second, looming event risk by way of US jobs data may materially later the setup in the near term. On balance, it seems best to stand aside.

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