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AUD/USD Technical Analysis: Critical Trend Line Under Fire

AUD/USD Technical Analysis: Critical Trend Line Under Fire

2016-11-11 03:25:00
Ilya Spivak, Sr. Currency Strategist
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Talking Points:

  • AUD/USD Technical Strategy: Flat
  • Australian Dollar attempting to break 10-month trend line again
  • Looking to enter short after clear-cut breakout has been confirmed

The Australian Dollar is once again attempting to break free of a narrowing consolidation range that has confined price action since mid-August. The outcome of US presidential election fueled aggressive volatility but fell short of securing a defined breakout, as was suspected.

Near-term continues to be marked by a rising trend line set from January, now at 0.7592. A daily close below this barrier exposes the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 0.7536. Alternatively, a reversal back above the 23.6% Fib at 0.7629 opens the door for a retest of the 14.6% retracement at 0.7686.

A clear-cut breakout is yet to materialize so picking a directional bias seems premature for now. In any case, prices are wedged to tightly between immediate up- and down-side technical barriers to justify taking a trade from a risk/reward perspective. Waiting for a better-defined setup seems most attractive for now.

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AUD/USD Technical Analysis: Critical Trend Line Under Fire

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