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AUD/USD Technical Analysis: Pivotal Resistance Back in Play

AUD/USD Technical Analysis: Pivotal Resistance Back in Play

2016-08-09 00:12:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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Talking Points:

  • AUD/USD Technical Strategy: Flat
  • Aussie Dollar testing resistance capping the upside since late June
  • Inconclusive positioning, adverse risk/rewardsetup call for patience

The Australian Dollar is testing familiar resistance above the 0.76 threshold against its US counterpart after prices found support above the 0.74 figure. The pair has been capped here since late June, with a sustained upward push this time around threatening April’s swing top.

A daily close above the 50% Fibonacci expansion at 0.7649 clears the way for a challenge of the 61.8% level at 0.7768, a barrier reinforced by the April 21 high at 0.7835. Alternatively, a reversal back below the 38.2% Fib at 0.7530 opens the door for a retest of the July 27 low at 0.7421.

Entering short seems premature despite the presence of significant resistance absent a tangible bearish reversal signal. On the other hand, taking up the long side is unattractive from a risk/reward perspective. With that in mind, opting for the sidelines seems most prudent until something more compelling emerges.

Losing money trading AUD/USD? This may be why.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis: Pivotal Resistance Back in Play

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