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AUD/USD Technical Analysis: March Swing High Under Fire

AUD/USD Technical Analysis: March Swing High Under Fire

Ilya Spivak,

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Talking Points:

  • AUD/USD Technical Strategy: Flat
  • Aussie Dollar rallies most in a month, challenges March swing high
  • Looking for new setup to re-enter short in line with long-term trend

The Australian Dollar secured a third consecutive day of gain versus its US counterpart, putting in the largest advance in a month. Prices now stand to challenge the March swing high as buyers attempt to clear a path above the 0.78 figure.

A daily close above the 0.7703-23 area (23.6% Fibonacci expansion, March 31 high) opens the door for a test of the 38.2% level at 0.7834. Alternatively, a reversal below the 14.6%Fibat 0.7622 paves the way for a challenge of the 0.7477-0.7511 zone (March 24 low, 23.6% Fib retracement).

Our AUD/USD short trade from 0.7526 was stopped out as prices closed above the 0.76 figure. Our 2016 fundamental forecast calls for downtrend resumption and we are keen to re-enter short but an actionable trade setup is absent at this point. With that in mind, we will stay on the sidelines for now.

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