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Talking Points:
- AUD/USD Technical Strategy: Flat
- Australian Dollar in digestion mode after finding a top below 0.73 figure
- RSI divergence hints at bearish reversal but actionable confirmation lacking
The Australian Dollar is treading water against its US counterpart having found interim resistance at a nine-month high above the 0.73 figure. Negative RSI divergence hints at ebbing upside momentum and warns that a reversal downward may be in the cards ahead.
Near-term support is at 0.7511, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, with a break below that on a daily closing basis opening the door for a test of the 38.2% level at 0.7391. Alternatively, a push above the 14.6% Fib expansion at 0.7641 paves the way for a challenge of the 0.7722-3 area, marked by the 23.6% threshold and the March 31 high.
We are keen to enter short AUD/USD in line with our 2016 fundamental outlook. Confirmation of a bearish reversal and an actionable sell signal are absent however, arguing against pulling the trigger at present. With that in mind, we will remain on the sidelines and wait for a more compelling opportunity to present itself.
Losing money trading AUD/USD? This might be why.
