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AUD/USD Technical Analysis: Aussie Rallies Most in 8 Months

AUD/USD Technical Analysis: Aussie Rallies Most in 8 Months

2016-02-04 01:22:00
Ilya Spivak, Sr. Currency Strategist
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Talking Points:

  • AUD/USD Technical Strategy: Flat
  • Australian Dollar produces largest daily advance in 8 months vs. US Dollar
  • Rebound looks corrective, with dominant trend still favoring the downside

The Australian Dollar renewed the upside push against its US counterpart, yielding the largest one-day rally in eight months. Critically, prices conspicuously failed to break back above the underside of a Triangle chart pattern whose breach marked the resumption of the Aussie’s multi-year decline. That seems to suggest gains are corrective.

Near-term resistance is at 0.7172, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, with a break above that on a daily closing basis opening the door for a test of the 76.4% level at 0.7254. Alternatively, a move back below the 50% Fib at 0.7106 clears the way for a challenge of the 0.7016-40 area (November 10 low, 38.2% retracement).

Our pending order to enter short AUD/USD 0.7097 was triggered and the trade was promptly stopped out. The longer-term trend continues to favor the downside however. With that in mind, we will look for a new bearish reversal signal to emerge as the corrective upswing fizzles and position to re-establish short.

Is AUD/USD nearing a turning point? Use DailyFX SSI positioning data to help find the answer!

AUD/USD Technical Analysis: Aussie Rallies Most in 8 Months

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