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Talking Points:
- AUD/USD Technical Strategy: Flat
- Australian Dollar Rises to Six-Week High vs. USD as Prices Threaten 0.74 Figure
- Waiting for Rebound Exhaustion to Enter Short as Long-Term Down Trend Resumes
The Australian Dollar resumed its advance against the US Dollar after a brief consolidative pause, rising to a six-week high and setting its sights on a test of the 0.74 figure. The latest upswing broke through trend line resistance set from September 2014, suggesting a significant recovery is in progress.
Near-term resistance is now at 0.7387, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, with a break above that on a daily closing basis opening the door for a test of the 50% level at 0.7535. Alternatively, a move back below resistance-turned-support at 0.7283 – the November 25 high – paves the way for retesting a horizontal pivot at 0.7184.
While the near-term bias appears to have shifted in buyers’ favor, the dominant down trend in play since April 2013 is a very long way from being invalidated. That suggests on-coming gains are corrective. With that in mind, we will remain flat for now and wait for the advance to yield a selling opportunity.
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