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USD/JPY at Risk but Month End Could Be Tricky

USD/JPY at Risk but Month End Could Be Tricky

2013-05-29 22:00:00
Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist
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eliottWaves_usd-jpy_body_usdjpy.png, USD/JPY at Risk but Month End Could Be Tricky

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0

Are you new to FX or curious about your trading IQ?

FOREXAnalysis: The USDJPY rally from 90.84 is an ending diagonal (wedge). Such patterns are usually resolved violently and often fully retraced. An outside reversal week on a slightly less than record week of volume is consistent with an important top. I wrote Tuesday that “a push above 102.58 could complete a flat correction from the 5/23 low. Given the volatile nature, I’d not be surprised to see a push above 103 on news tonight before a reversal.” The USDJPY couldn’t even make it to 102.58 as the top was 102.52. Price has broken diagonal support.

FOREXTrading Strategy: The diagonal break after last week’s reversal warrants a bearish bias but chasing weakness down here incurs month end whipsaw risk. As such, would prefer to sell strength. 1.0200 (5/23 close) is of interest and 103.14 still can’t be completely dismissed. I’m likely to sit tight until Sunday/Monday.

LEVELS: 98.57 99.94 100.40 101.45 102.00 102.52

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